The chance of a La Nina forming has doubled, Bureau of Meteorology says
24.06.2020
A La Nina watch has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the first time since February 2018, strengthening evidence that Australia may be heading out of drought. Key points:
A La Nina 'watch' has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology
There is now twice the chance of a La Nina developing in 2020
Drought-breaking rain is considerably more likely in a La Nina year
"La Nina basically means, for Australia, an increased risk of rainfall — particularly in central, eastern and northern parts of the country," said Andrew Watkins, the head of long-range forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology.
A La Nina watch means the chance of La Nina forming in 2020 is around 50 per cent — roughly double the average likelihood.
"La Nina is a cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean," Dr Watkins said.
"When that couples with the atmosphere, we start to see some global impacts, including those in Australia."
NB. Image of the temperature difference based on the 1961-1990 'homeginised' global sst average below.
Using a 74 year cycle .. to me 1961-1990 was when the oceans were mostly in cool cycle... a better average would be 1961-2000 to get an even part measure of the cool and warm part of the cycle.
