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16/01/15

16:30

Post #: 14596140
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Saudi Will Win The Price War, Oil To Rebound 50% By December: Nomura

By Shuli Ren

Nomura Securities is already calling the bottom and “the birth of a new oil bull market.” The bank forecasts that Brent crude will bottom at an average of $45 in Q1, recover to $55 in Q2, and go back to the long-term average of $80 by the end of this year.
The oil market is in real trouble if the bear is driven by weak demand, but fortunately, this one is just a temporary price war started by Saudi Arabia.
The force is still strong. “It is not demand weakness that triggered the oil price collapse. Global oil consumption is at a record high and there is only about 3% of spare global capacity as the era of easy oil is long gone,” according to analysts Gordon Kwan and Bob Chen. The recent oil price collapse was “deliberately triggered by Saudi Arabia” to slow down development in U.S. shale oil, Canadian oil sands and deep-water and Arctic drilling.
Just like in 1986, Saudi Arabia will win this price war again, because the Middle East has the lowest cost producers. The Middle East producers incur only $15-40 per barrel in costs when they drill, whereas “half of the world’s projects would not be economically attractive if oil prices remain below $50 per barrel.” Brent crude stays below $50 this week, recently trading at $47.87.

Hopefully is works out that way.

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The world’s largest oil-field service company, Schlumberger Ltd. , said Thursday that it laid off 9,000 workers late last year, reducing global head count 7%.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/schlumberger-profit-falls-on-lower-oil-prices-1421358734

AKK Price at posting: 4.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

SSN Price at posting: 1.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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