20thDecember 2023
Wednesday
Scheduled for Wednesday, December 20,2023, are key economic announcements from both Great Britain and the UnitedStates. Great Britain is set to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data,which measures the annual change in the cost of goods and services.Concurrently, the United States will publish the Conference Board (CB) ConsumerConfidence Index, a vital indicator of consumer sentiment and economic outlookin the U.S.
GBP – CPI y/y
The bulk ofoverall inflation is comprised of consumer prices. This aspect of inflation iscrucial for the valuation of currency, as increased prices often prompt thecentral bank to hike interest rates in line with its commitment to controllinginflation.
In October 2023,the United Kingdom's inflation rate had dropped to 4.6%, a decrease from the6.7% observed in the previous two months and below the market expectations of4.8%. This reduction was largely due to decreased energy prices followingOfgem's decision to lower caps on household bills. Housing and utilities costshad fallen by 3.5%, and gas and electricity prices experienced their mostsignificant decrease since January 1989. Additionally, food inflation had easedto 10.1%, the lowest since June 2022. The core inflation rate, which excludesvolatile items, also declined to 5.7%, marking its lowest point since March2022. On a monthly comparison, the Consumer Price Index had remained unchanged.
The forecast for the CPI y/ysuggests a modest decrease from 4.6% to 4.0%.
The upcoming CPIy/y release is scheduled for Wednesday, December 20, 2023, at 07:00 AMGMT.
The last time, the British CPI y/y wasannounced on the 15th of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (EURGBP M5) below:USD - CB Consumer Confidence
Financialconfidence serves as a key predictor of consumer expenditure, which constitutesa significant portion of total economic activity.
The ConferenceBoard reported an increase in the Consumer Confidence Index to 102.0 inNovember, up from a revised 99.1 in October, indicating a modest improvement inconsumer sentiment. This rise was particularly noted among older householders,despite ongoing concerns about escalating prices and potential globalconflicts. While the Present Situation Index saw a slight decrease, reflectingvaried opinions on job availability and business conditions, the ExpectationsIndex, which gauges short-term income and labor market outlooks, exhibitedpositive trends. Chief Economist Dana Peterson of The Conference Board pointed outrobust consumer financial health, yet acknowledged ongoing apprehensionsregarding interest rates and stock market volatility. The survey also revealedreduced but still significant concerns among consumers about a potentialrecession in the coming year.
TL;DR
· Consumer Confidence Indexincreased to 102.0 in November from 99.1 in October.
· Improvement noted especiallyamong older householders.
· Concerns remain about risingprices and global conflicts.
· Present Situation Indexdecreased slightly.
· Expectations Index showedpositive trends.
· Chief Economist Dana Petersonhighlighted strong consumer financial health but acknowledged fears overinterest rates and stock market volatility.
· Survey indicated reduced yetsignificant concerns about a potential recession in the next year.
The projected forecastfor the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index suggests amodest increase from 102 to 103.8.
The forthcomingrelease of the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index isscheduled for Wednesday, December 20, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.
The last time, the US CB Consumer ConfidenceIndex was announced on the 28th of November, 2023. You may findthe market reaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:
