21stDecember 2023
Thursday
In a significanteconomic update, the United States is set to announce its Final Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) for the quarter, along with Unemployment Claims data, onThursday, December 21, 2023. This announcement will provide key insights intothe country’s economic health and labor market conditions, offering criticalinformation for investors and policymakers.USD - Final GDP q/q
This representsthe most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and serves as the principalmeasure for assessing the overall health of the economy.
The US economyhad experienced robust expansion in the third quarter of 2023, growing at anannualized rate of 5.2%, which exceeded both the preliminary estimate of 4.9%and the forecasts of 5%. This growth marked the strongest since the fourthquarter of 2021. Nonresidential investment was notably revised upwards, showinga 1.3% increase rather than the initially estimated 0.1% decline. The decreasein equipment spending was less severe than first thought (-3.5% compared to-3.8%), and spending on structures surged to 6.9%, significantly higher thanthe 1.6% increase in the preliminary estimate. Residential investment also sawan upturn for the first time in nearly two years, growing at a much faster rateof 6.2% compared to the 3.9% initially predicted. Private inventorycontributions to growth were revised up to 1.4 percentage points, exceeding theearlier estimate of 1.32 points. Government spending growth accelerated morethan expected, reaching 5.5% versus the previously estimated 4.6%. However,consumer spending increased by 3.6%, slightly below the 4% in the initialestimate but still representing the largest rise since the fourth quarter of2021. The moderate slowdown was mainly attributed to a decrease in servicesspending. Export growth was strong at 6%, albeit slightly lower than the 6.2%initial estimate, while the increase in imports was more modest at 5.2%,compared to the previously estimated 5.7%.
TL;DR
Economic Indicator
Initial Estimate
Revised Estimate
Remarks
1 Overall GDP Growth Rate
4.9%
5.2%
Strongest since Q4 2021
2 Nonresidential Investment
-0.1%
1.3%
Revised upwards
3 Equipment Spending
-3.8%
-3.5%
Decrease less severe
4 Spending on Structures
1.6%
6.9%
Significant surge
5 Residential Investment
3.9%
6.2%
First upturn in nearly 2 years
6 Private Inventory Contributions
1.32 points
1.4 points
Exceeds earlier estimate
7 Government Spending
4.6%
5.5%
Accelerated more than expected
8 Consumer Spending
4.0%
3.6%
Largest rise since Q4 2021
9 Export Growth
6.2%
6.0%
Strong growth
10 Import Growth
5.7%
5.2%
More modest increase
The projection for the Final GDP q/qis currently estimated at 5.2%.
The upcomingrelease of the Final GDP q/q is set for Thursday, December 21, 2023,at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Final GDP q/q wasannounced on 28th of September, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:USD- Unemployment Claims
The unemploymentrate, often considered a lagging indicator, remains a crucial measure of theeconomy's health due to its strong correlation with consumer spending and labormarket conditions. Additionally, unemployment levels play a significant role inguiding the country's monetary policy decisions.
The latest datahad revealed a significant decrease in the number of Americans filing forunemployment benefits, with new claims dropping by 19,000 to reach 202,000 inthe week ending December 9th. This figure was notably lower than the market'sexpectation of 220,000 and represented the lowest level in two months. Thedecline in new claims had signaled a tight labor market in the US, potentiallygiving the Federal Reserve more leeway to maintain its current interest rate,particularly if inflation persisted. Concurrently, continuing claims had seen aslight rise, increasing by 11,000 to 1,876,000 in the final week of November,yet still below the projected 1,887,000. On an unadjusted basis, claims haddropped by over 46,000, with significant decreases in states such as New Yorkand Pennsylvania. The four-week moving average also had fallen, indicating areduction in volatility in the job market.
TL;DR
Indicator
Data
Remarks
1 New Claims for Unemployment Benefits
202,000 (Dropped by 19,000)
Lowest level in two months
2 Market Expectation for New Claims
220,000
Exceeded market's expectation
3 Continuing Claims
1,876,000 (Increased by 11,000)
Slight rise
4 Projected Continuing Claims
1,887,000
Below projection
5 Unadjusted Claims Drop
Dropped by over 46,000
Significant decreases in states like New York and Pennsylvania
6 Four-week Moving Average
Fallen (Reduction in volatility)
Indicates a stable job market
The forecast forthe US Unemployment Claims announcement is reading an increase to215,000.
The upcomingrelease of Unemployment Claims is scheduled for Thursday, December21, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time the US Unemployment Claimswas announced on the 14th of December, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (USDCAD M5) below:
