22ndDecember 2023
Friday
On Friday,December 22, 2023, key economic news will be released by the UK, Canada, andthe US. The UK is set to announce its monthly Retail Sales figures, Canada willdisclose its monthly GDP data, and the US will present its monthly Core PCEPrice Index along with the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.GBP - Retail Sales m/m
This measureacts as the principal indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes themajority of overall economic activity.
In October 2023,retail sales in the United Kingdom faced a surprising downturn with a 0.3%month-over-month decrease, falling short of market expectations that hadanticipated a 0.3% growth. This unexpected decline was primarily attributed toa 2.0% drop in automotive fuel sales, driven by cautious consumer spending andadverse weather conditions. Additionally, food store receipts declined by 0.3%,with notable decreases in specialist food stores and alcohol and tobacco sales,plummeting by 4.2% and 10.4%, respectively. Non-food store trade alsocontracted by 0.2%, influenced by factors such as the rising cost of living,reduced customer footfall, and inclement weather. Within the non-food category,clothing stores (-0.9%), household goods stores (-1.1%), and department stores(-0.1%) experienced declines. In contrast, non-store retailing, primarilyonline sales, showed resilience with a 0.8% increase. On a yearly basis, the UKwitnessed a continuous decline in retail sales, marking the 19th consecutivemonth of contraction in this crucial economic indicator.
TL;DR
Category
Month-over-Month Change
1 Overall Retail Sales
-0.3%
2 Automotive Fuel
-2.0%
3 Food Stores
-0.3%
4 Specialist Food Stores
-4.2%
5 Alcohol & Tobacco
-10.4%
6 Non-Food Stores
-0.2%
7 Clothing Stores
-0.9%
8 Household Goods Stores
-1.1%
9 Department Stores
-0.1%
10 Non-Store Retailing
+0.8%
The forecast suggests a shift fromthe previous result of -0.3% to a positive 0.6%.
The forthcoming RetailSales m/m is set to be unveiled on Friday, December 22, 2023, at 07:00AM GMT.
The last time the US Retail Sales m/m wasannounced on the 17th of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (GBPJPY M5) below:CAD - GDP m/m
This metric isthe most extensive evaluation of economic performance and serves as the primaryindicator of the economy's condition.
In October 2023,Canada's economy is projected to have expanded by 0.2%, according topreliminary figures. This growth was influenced by gains in the mining,quarrying, oil and gas extraction, retail trade, and construction industries,though these were partly offset by a decrease in the wholesale trade sector. Inthe previous month, September, the Canadian economy saw a 0.1% growth,primarily due to a 0.3% rise in the goods-producing sectors, marking its firstincrease in six months. The services-producing sectors remained mostly stable.Notably, the manufacturing sector experienced a 0.9% increase, recovering fromthree months of decline, with both durable and non-durable manufacturingsectors showing improvement. Additionally, the construction sector andwholesale trade saw increases of 0.1% and 0.5% respectively. On the other hand,the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector declined by 1.4%,continuing its 13-month downward trend. Similarly, the mining, quarrying, oil,and gas extraction sector experienced a 1.8% decline.
TL;DR
Sector
October 2023 Growth
September 2023 Growth
1 Overall Economy
+0.2%
+0.1%
2 Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extraction
Increase
-1.8%
3 Retail Trade
Increase
Not specified
4 Construction
Increase
+0.1%
5 Wholesale Trade
Decrease
+0.5%
6 Goods-Producing Sectors
Not specified
+0.3%
7 Services-Producing Sectors
Stable
Stable
8 Manufacturing
+0.9%
Not specified
9 Durable Manufacturing
Improvement
Not specified
10 Non-Durable Manufacturing
Improvement
Not specified
11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting
Not specified
-1.4%
The GDP m/m forecast suggests amodest increase, moving from 0.1% to 0.2%.
The forthcomingGDP m/m data is scheduled for release on Friday, December 22, 2023, at1:30 PM GMT.
The last timethe Canadian GDP m/m was announced on the 30th of November,2023. You may find the market reaction graph (CADJPY M5) below:
USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m
This metric isthe main tool used by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflation. Inflation plays acrucial role in determining the value of currency, as increasing prices promptthe central bank to hike interest rates, adhering to their mandate to keepinflation in check.
In October 2023,the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in the U.S., whichexcludes fluctuating items such as food and energy, recorded a modest increaseof 0.2% from the prior month. This aligns with market predictions and shows adeceleration from September's 0.3% rise. The annual Core PCE rate, the FederalReserve's preferred inflation gauge, dropped to 3.5%, the lowest since April2021. In contrast, the overall PCE Price Index remained steady in October,defying expectations of a 0.1% increase. The year-over-year PCE inflation ratereduced to 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, consistent with earlierprojections. These developments provide valuable insights into the changinginflation trends and their possible impact on future Federal Reserve monetarypolicies.
TL;DR
Index Type
October 2023 Change
September 2023 Change
Annual Rate October 2023
Annual Rate Previous Month
1 Core PCE Price Index
+0.2%
+0.3%
3.5%
Not specified
2 Overall PCE Price Index
Steady (0% change)
Not specified
3%
3.4%
The upcoming CorePCE Price Index m/m forecast remains consistent with the previous figure,predicting a 0.2% outcome, unchanged from the prior result.
The upcomingrelease of the Core PCE Price Index m/m is scheduled for Friday,December 22, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time the US Core PCE Price Index m/mwas announced on the 30th of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Consumerconfidence in financial matters is a key predictor of consumer spending, whichmakes up the bulk of total economic activity. This is assessed through a surveyof approximately 500 consumers, who are asked to evaluate the current andfuture economic conditions.
In December2023, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US had surged to69.4, up from 61.3 in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 62.0according to a preliminary estimate. This was the highest level since August,primarily driven by positive changes in expected inflation trajectories. Inflationexpectations for the upcoming year had decreased to 3.1% from November's 4.5%,the lowest since March 2021. Furthermore, the five-year inflation outlook hadfallen to 2.8%, tying with the second lowest figure since July 2021. Thecomponent measuring current economic conditions had risen to 74.0 from 68.3,and the index for consumer expectations had jumped to 66.4 from 56.8. At thispoint, US consumer sentiment was about 39% higher than the all-time lowrecorded in June 2022, yet still remained significantly below pre-pandemiclevels.
TL;DR
Indicator
December 2023
November 2023
Market Expectation
Historical Comparison
1 Overall Consumer Sentiment
69.4
61.3
62.0
Highest since August
2 One-Year Inflation Expectation
3.1%
4.5%
Not specified
Lowest since March 2021
3 Five-Year Inflation Outlook
2.8%
Not specified
Not specified
Ties with second lowest since July 2021
4 Current Economic Conditions
74.0
68.3
Not specified
Improved
5 Consumer Expectations Index
66.4
56.8
Not specified
Improved
6 Comparison to June 2022 Low
39% higher
Not specified
Not specified
Not specified
7 Comparison to Pre-Pandemic Levels
Not specified
Not specified
Not specified
Significantly below
The projectedfigure for the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment iscurrently indicating a value of 69.4.
The next Revised University of MichiganConsumer Sentiment report is scheduled for release on Friday, December22, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.
The last time the US Revised UoM ConsumerSentiment report was announced on the 22nd of November, 2023.You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:
