4thJanuary 2024
Thursday
Significant economic updatesare expected on Thursday, January 4th, 2024, from leading global economies.Germany is poised to release its Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) on amonthly basis. In the United States, attention will be focused on the releaseof the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the latest Unemployment Claims data,providing key insights into the labor market's health.
EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m
Consumer prices constitute a significant portion of total inflation. Inflation plays a crucial role in currency valuation, as it compels the central bank to increase interest rates in adherence to its mandate to contain inflation.
In a notable economic development, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a 0.40% decrease in November 2023 compared to the previous month. Historical data from 1950 to 2023 shows that Germany's average monthly inflation rate has been 0.21%, with the highest spike of 3.10% occurring in October 1951 and the most significant drop of -2.73% recorded in January 1950.
The expected GermanPreliminary CPI m/m suggests a shift from the previous -0.4% to a positive 0.2% reading.
The upcoming release of the GermanPreliminary CPI m/m is scheduled for January 4th, 2024, at 1:00 PM GMT.
The last time, the German Prelim CPI m/m was announced on the 29th of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (EURJPY M5) below:
USD - ADPNon-Farm Employment Change
Job creation serves as a critical leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes the bulk of overall economic activity.
In November 2023, U.S. private sector employment grew by 103,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 131,000 and slightly below October's revised figure of 106,000, according to ADP. The increase was largely driven by the services sector, which added 117,000 jobs, with significant gains in trade, transportation, utilities, education, health, financial activities, and information. Contrarily, job losses occurred in leisure, hospitality, and professional/business services. The goods-producing sector also declined, led by losses in manufacturing and construction. Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with the smallest increases since 2021 for both job-stayers and job-changers. ADP's Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, commented on the trend, noting a shift from the rapid growth in leisure and hospitality to more moderate hiring and wage increases expected in 2024.
TL;DR
Aspect
Details
1 Total Job Growth
103,000 jobs (below the expected 131,000)
2 October's Revised Figure
106,000 jobs
3 Main Contributing Sector
Services Sector
4 Services Sector Growth
+117,000 jobs
5 Key Areas of Growth in Services
Trade, Transportation, Utilities, Education, Health, Financial Activities, Information
6 Areas of Job Losses
Leisure, Hospitality, Professional/Business Services
7 Goods-Producing Sector Trend
Decline, led by losses in Manufacturing and Construction
8 Wage Growth Trend
Slowing down, smallest increases since 2021 for both job-stayers and job-changers
9 ADP's Chief Economist's Comment
Nela Richardson noted a shift from rapid growth in leisure and hospitality to more moderate hiring and wage increases expected in 2024
The forecast for the upcoming ADP Non-Farm EmploymentChange indicates an expectation of 100K, which is marginally lower than the previous figure of 103K.
The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is scheduled for release at 1:15 PM GMT on January 4th, 2024.
The last time, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report was announced on the 6th of December, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDUSD M5) below:
USD -Unemployment Claims
While typically considered a laggingindicator, the unemployment rate is a vital sign of overall economic health, asconsumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions. Additionally,unemployment levels are a key factor in guiding the nation's monetary policy.
In the week ending December 23, theadvance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims had been 218,000,reflecting an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. Theprevious week's level had been revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The4-week moving average had been 212,000, indicating a decrease of 250 from theprevious week's revised average. The previous week's average had been revisedup by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250.
TL;DR
Data Point
Details
1 Initial Claims
218,000 (an increase of 12,000 from the previous week)
2 Previous Week's Revised Level
Revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000
3 4-Week Moving Average
212,000 (a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average)
4 Previous Week's Revised Average
Revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250
The forecast for the US Unemployment claims report is reading a decrease to 216,000.
The latest data on UnemploymentClaims is set to be publicly released on January 4, 2024, at 1:30 PMGMT.
