Hi all, I want to understand your opinions around what sort of valuation we will look at IF the year-end flow test is successful in proving a commercial oil reserve. Here is one methodology: DYOR.
1. estimated conventional total of 647MMbbl of prospective oil resources independently assessed according to 88E. discount it by 50% = 323MMbbl.
2. PANR is using a valuation of USD 5-10 per bbl for their Kodiak & Ahpun reserves. (Quote 'Refocus of Strategy: Pantheon is pleased to share its forward strategy which targets sustainable market recognition of a value of $5 - $10 per barrel of recoverable resource by end 2028' Unquote.) Brent is currently trading at USD 85 per bbl (6-12%)
3. That means 88E could have an enterprise value of 323m x USD 5 = USD 1.6B (or USD 3.2B @ USD 10/bbl)
4. Shares in issue + right issue = 22.1B
5. Enterprise value per share = USD 7.3c = AUD 11c (or AUD 22c @ USD 10bbl)
# discounting in point 2. above covers all the financing costs, discounted cashflow/NPV etc.
Questions:
1. PANR thinks they need >2B bbl of marketable liquids to commercialise fields! Hickory estimate is less than 1/3 of that! Are there commercial wells operating in Alaska right now with this sort of reserve volumes? What is the minimum?
2. PANR target timeframe is 2028! and they are ahead of 88E in terms drill status. What is the 88E timeline to achieve similar status?
3. How does 88E compare versus PANR in terms of quality of the wells based on like for like status? or is it too early to comment?
Guys, lets keep the discussion civil. thank you.
I value all your opinions, for or against. thank you.
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