You cannot predict the randomness of the stock market, you can however get a good hold on value, and a slightly lesser hold on what denotes "quality". So, in those terms if you think there is value and quality then what I've done is put both hands in the pockets and bought. When I see value, I buy, I don't know when it will take a breather, or wind back, I have the confidence based on a value and quality perspective that what I buy is good value. If it were to be taken off the market tomorrow, I'd be confident that the value of that portion of ownership is now worth more with an objective valuation separate of the market. And I don't think anyone (save insider trading) can reliably predict short-term at all unless they're controlling a self-fulfilling narrative (zero sum game - popular chartists with a large following, in that case the first one out has sat down on the now fewer number of chairs remaining).
Here I saw value and shifted every free dollar I had into buying more with lump-sum chunks.
I understand reasons about how taking profit makes sense but in the timeframes, I started buying (around late last year between 27-31c range) that this story is stronger than it was yesterday and now it has taken off. Has sentiment outpaced value? Well, look at where the share price has come. Was it overpriced then, or have we been severely undervalued and now the market is returning it to the mean value?
The companies I abstained from realising profit because the story only keeps getting stronger are the best performers and my biggest holdings (and biggest cost prices), one story played out its thesis so far but took years. This is going to be another one of those companies for me, to echo Charlie Munger, "just hold the goddamn stock". This is not a couple month play.
A1M Price at posting:
43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
