Early replacement and widespread premature decommissioning of panels—driven by the ITC, conversion efficiencies, compensation rates, installation prices, severe weather events, and other factors—could push those numbers even higher. Most forecasts also assume the full 25-to-30-year lifespan of panels and that installers will take ownership and responsibility for removal and disposal of both residential and commercial installations. This is not the case. Due to limited resources, storage, and transportation options under current waste laws, as well as the need to verify the legitimacy of possible recycling or reuse outlets, installers have no incentives to manage the panels that they are replacing.
