Weekly Review U Stocks - 10th May 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for last year - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contains 33 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 finished this Week at 5222, reached 5239. Weekly, around 2% gain. Last 2 weeks i have been writing that the odds of SP 500 doing a new all time high before falling/correcting has increased considerably, somehow it has played out that way
- Volatility Index VIX is at 12.55, a drop from 13.49 of last week, a big drop of 7% weekly - continues to stay in strong bull territory
- Bitcoin doing wild swings, after a big scare last week drop mid 50k, trying to recover, but with some weakness, at 60k currently
- Sentiment Indicator - at Neutral 48, was in Fear at 40 last week, reflecting now some positivity, but still a bit divergent considering SP 500 may do a new all time high shortly, punters still cautious and not buying everything at this stage
- Russell 2000 played similar to SP 500. This week it gained around 2% and now at 2059, but still lagging other indicators strongly
- Yields which was dropping, now starting to come, another divergence from market
- Dollar Index too was retreating, but stopped going down, a third divergence
- Gold, Silver and Oil all down from their recent highs, Gold/Silver stabilising though, slight increase this week
- Last week I wrote- overall one can be optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. I feel the same this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 is just under 0.8% below its all time high - will it have a crack this week?. Downside, if it can keep above 5000, still very bullish
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
- Key economic data this week around - Inflation data - many expecting CPI to drop one basis point and PPI to be same - market could react in either direction depending on the numbers
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium stocks this week were mixed, and a three pronged play happening currently - there are now clearly 3 different sets of U stocks who are playing differently. All the big stocks are doing very, many making 52 week highs week after week. Stocks like PDN, BOE, BMN, LOT, DYL, SLX etc. Next is mid-level stocks from maybe 50 to 250m market caps. There are stagnating and not have had the big benefit of the rise. There are better than before but lagging big U stocks considerably. Stocks like AGE, EL8, TOE, CXU, DEV, AEE, PEN, etc. And then there are small caps. Forget about benefits and gains, they are worse than mid caps, infact there is practically no gain there, some even down, stocks like 1AE, EME, EPM, GLA, GTR, HAR, GUE etc. This is how the market is playing whether we like it or not. I know mid and small stocks follow from behind, but this time it looks different, the lag is becoming bigger and bigger. That could change, but cannot be ignored for now. I am playing accordingly. Spot price, nearly stagnant this week, a small drop from 92.40 to 92.25. 4 ASX U stocks made a 52 week high this week, again this week, very positive, but it was characterised by big stocks like PDN/SLX/BMN/LOT doing that, BOE just behind. These are the same 4 stocks which also did 52 week high last week. Message is clear, for now. I have been saying for many weeks, CCJ will make a new 52 week high before it may go down, it did that on Friday, 53.17 - but then profit takers took control, finished at 50.91 - has put a question mark now I feel.
- Lithium Sector overview - I have been writing for a while that ALB needs to stay above 128 to be at least neutral and get out of weakness (SQM 50). I had also written, key is to hold 130s and move towards 150. It was playing beautifully for 4 days, no big break outs but playing in 130s, gaining a bit every day. But then came Friday and a big drop. It finished on 129, undoing all the good work for the week. The only solace, it is still ahead of 128, it was slightly ahead for the week. But the good showing is now on hold. Once again it will have to make an effort to at least make 130s home. Last so many months it has tried and failed. Hope this is not another one of those failures. 5 of the 7 US Li stocks I track were in red for the week, though small. SQM still in weak zone, below 50. There is hope though. We are not around 110 for ALB looking for another 52 week low. So there is chance next attempt it may get over. But till then I would say caution is required.
- REE Sector overview - This week REE stocks a similar play like Lithium, not much gain, still treading water. Last week 3 stocks made 52 week highs - BRE/RCR/WA1. This week BRE/WA1. The reason I write about the highs is it is an indication for those not very sure which stocks to play. Like myself who is not very great on fundamentals. I look at these price actions and at least try to have something on repeat winners. WA1 only reason I picked was by seeing the highs, have held it from $8 - one of my best performing stock, I am sure it may be for many others. So overall still caution, no fireworks yet.
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Personally:
My current situation slight change from last week, but some rotation - 25% U, 20% Li, 35% Others, 20% cash. Added 5% on U, 10% on Li and reduced 15% from others.
U stocks I did a lot of rotation, most of my play now is in big stocks. So from last week still hold (and added to) PDN, BMN, LOT, BOE, DYL - added SLX. Reduced my holding from AGE. Exited CXU. I still feel mid to small caps will come to the party, I will then move there.
Li stocks last week was 10%, now 20%. Added LRS, SYA and WR1 this week to my holding from last week of AZL/RDN.
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In Others (similar to what I wrote last week).
Got out of EYE and reduced some in other stocks, so from 50% of my holding in this group, now its 35%. EYE my buy was 23, I was hoping it crack 30, I didn't like the play, got out on a small gain in sell at 27 this week. Reduced my average in RCR from 6.5 to 4.5 by selling a good portion on Monday and buying back - still holding same amount
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), , ENR ( 31, ), ENV ( 1.7), RCR (4.5), BRE (285)
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (5.5)
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- This week AGE playing in 5.9/6.8 zone, but with no direction
- From a weekly perspective no change and finished at 6.2
- U stocks flat for the week, but big stocks did well and most in green, some decent. Small stocks brought the average down.
- U stocks up 10% for the year, hopefully January mid 30% gain beckoning
- Last week I had written I had bought some AGE at 5.9. Got a portion out at 6.3, AGE not doing bad but some other big stocks doing better, so have rotated some there for now. I don't have the capacity to drive the market, best I can follow what is happening.
- U future is now at 92.25, a small drop this week
- There is now a question mark on how far the rally will continue. I had said CCJ will make a new high before it drops below 45. It did so this week. I also have been thinking that CCJ may do somewhere between 55 and 60 in this rally. That is still pending. Friday's action was not great, but it has not negated the theory that rally may continue. We may need to watch this week, and general markets and Inflation number - if they are positive then it may be fine. But good gains have been made even on many ASX U big stocks, at some stage a breather, a slight correction will come, not sure when, but I am conscious about it and watching it intently. Reason being prices could take a breather, drop 15 to 20% in that phase. But lets see next week.
- On Friday US U were in red. ASX U may start tentatively and even could mirror a red, hopefully not a big one.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)
