AGY 4.00% 12.0¢ argosy minerals limited

This is a bit of a Sunday afternoon brain teaser.I am trying to...

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    This is a bit of a Sunday afternoon brain teaser.
    I am trying to calculate the number of open positions that are out of the money at the current share price.
    I doubt that we can ever truly know the true numbers but if its possible then it would be nice to know.
    Some feed back would be good, If I am wrong then I am wrong it does not really matter, its been fun working it out.

    Col. A. Date


    Col.B. Weekly openpositions reported to ASIC.


    Col. C. The totalweekly shorts reported to the ASX .


    Col. D. New weekly reported positions. This is the difference between last week’s opens as reported to ASIC & this weeks reported number.


    Col. E. Weeklyclosed positions. The difference between last weeks reported open positions & this weeks.


    Col. F. Totalweekly opened positions. This is the difference between Col D & Col E


    Col X. NewPositions in the Range. The difference between the a reported opens & showsthe increase / decrease for the range at the current time.


    Col Y. The totalnumber of shorts reported to the ASX while in the current range.


    Col Z. Closed Wklypositions in range. The positions that were closed while in the current range.This is calculated from the daily open positions to ASIC.


    Col AA.Remaining New Open Wkly Positions.

    This is where I start to enter uncertain territory

    I am trying to calculate how many positions that have been closed that can be observable.

    The formula I amusing is =IF(Z65<X65,Z65+X65,Z65-X65) This is the difference betweenCol X & Col AA.


    Col AB. RemainingOpen In Range Positions. I am assuming that this amount is the remainder of the open positions in each range after deducting the amount in Col AA.

    These will appear in Col. AD as the SP rises & the last close amount changes.


    After workingthrough the columns I have arrived at an outcome which I THINK is showing the remaining new open positions up to the top of the 10 - 15 range that will be out of the money at the last close. I have used an average VWAP so there are some in the 15 - 20 range that would also be out of the money at Frid close.


    If anyone would like to have a look at this sheet & offer an opinion as to my final outcome it would be welcome.

    If my calculations are correct there may be as many as 40,051,543 open positions that are out of the money.

    I doubt that these or any of the rest for that matter would be of much concern to whoever isholding them as they are likely to have quite a stockpile of in the money positions that I guess could be liquidated easily if the sp begins to run.


    If this sheet iswrong at least it occupied my mind for a while.


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6005/6005632-5f11f2a28fb4a992a3dafdab360861f4.jpg
    Last edited by seagull: 03/03/24
 
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