Disappointing result for the Libs. They should be worried, and if they are not, they are heading for defeat.
This is a safe blue ribbon Liberal seat. This is Liberal territory. John Howard owned it except in his declining years.
JA is supposedly popular. He was not leaving. He was returning and so the normal rules about swings do not apply.
A 5% swing against the government is a slap in the face for Turnbull because thousands have changed their vote since the last election.
No matter what spin you put on this result, thousands of voters changed their vote away from the Coalition. And given the circumstances of a popular returning member and the safe nature of the seat, this is a remarkable turnaround.
