So I listened to this on the TLX website, some thoughts: Note...

So I listened to this on the TLX website, some thoughts:

Note that most/all of these thoughts probably constitute sardonic, uninformed speculation on my part

CB made the comment (I'm paraphrasing heavily here) that prostate imaging is now basically a two horse race, and that any new competitors are going to have to scale production to a level to be competitive and then try and capture market share. I don't know if this is directed at anyone in particular but I couldn't help but think of CU6.

Darren Smith was the one who made the point about investing in R&D over paying dividends and taxes. My take on this is that it was a subtle(?) hint that the cash outflow priorities of the company are shared by the whole management team, it's not like CB is going on some personal spending binge. However he also made the point that expenses are going down as a proportion of sales (ed: this has been true of R&D too, actually).

There were various comments along the way about contingent consideration (which I finally worked out is just accountancy speak for "royalty payments"). I will have to check but I think the bottom line for this half might be impacted quite heavily too, before gradually dropping off. (I think that's reflected in the balance sheet with ~$37m short term and $57m overall. There was a more explicit set of numbers in an earlier yearly or half yearly).

I was bemused by the doublespeak of "waiting for progression data" for Prostact SELECT. I'm not quite sure why everyone's speaking around the issue rather than being open about it. My reading of what was said is that people aren't dying as quickly as expected. That's a good thing, right? (ed: surely they'd be using imaging to look at disease progression too?)

Overall I liked what I heard. I think that in some ways 2024 will be another "transitional year" for the company. Sales will (hopefully) grow, R&D spending will be adjusted to match, some trial results, FDA sorted for the new products.

I also suspect that for a lot of things, particularly related to therapy, TLX is going through the "iceberg" phase- that's where they're doing the 90% of things that you can't really see. For 2024, the focus will still be on imaging. In 2025, all the big news will be in therapy.

If the FDA really kick on with approvals, there may be Zircaix revenue this year, but next year- that's when revenue will really kick off. And the fact that they're willing to suggest a possible TAM for the two new products of >US$1b is very interesting; I believe TLX have been fairly careful in the past about not overinflating their TAM estimates. So I'm going to make a prediction that the pessimistic case is that they'll be doing AUS$1b by end 2025 and AUS$1.5b isn't too crazy.