Reposting comments from a few days ago for those who've just...

Reposting comments from a few days ago for those who've just stumbled upon WR1:


(1) Regarding SP upside:

Best comparable is obviously PMET. While they presumably have more resource upside, in the "cons" column there is the more complex permitting and likely later production date even if they were now to conclusively change their focus to identify and develop non-lake deposits first.

For PMET's MRE of 109.2mt @ 1.42% their EV is just 774 aud /t Li2O(considering their 147m aud cash)

If WR1 release a near-term MRE of (as Cannacord model) 55mt @ 1.2%, that equates to an EV of 230 aud /t Li2O
If it will be, as others have modeled, closer to 65mt @ 1.2%, that would be an EV of 194 aud /t Li2O
(These calculations incorporate a cash figure of 70m aud.)

So that should give you a sense of the potential upside if the resource is formally confirmed.

What that would look like:

WR1, 55mt @ 1.2%, valued at 774 aud /t Li2O = 511m EV + 70 cash = 581m MC = 2.81 SP
WR1, 55mt @ 1.2%, valued at 650 aud /t Li2O = 429m EV + 70 cash = 499m MC = 2.41 SP
WR1, 55mt @ 1.2%, valued at 500 aud /t Li2O = 330m EV + 70 cash = 400m MC = 1.93 SP

WR1, 65mt @ 1.2%, valued at 774 aud /t Li2O = 604m EV + 70 cash = 674m MC = 3.26 SP
WR1, 65mt @ 1.2%, valued at 650 aud /t Li2O = 507m EV + 70 cash = 577m MC = 2.79 SP
WR1, 65mt @ 1.2%, valued at 500 aud /t Li2O = 390m EV + 70 cash = 460m MC = 2.22 SP

(2) Regarding resource modeling:

Canaccord are now at 55mt @ 1.2% for their model. However there is also an interesting pro geo @WowVeryJosh with a solid track record (e.g. LRS, PMET MREs) and he's been modeling Adina for months. After the 1 August announcement (i.e. 18km assays) he put the resource at 76mt @ 1.1%. Here's what he wrote:

• link: https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/16d4f2f/comment/jzo1481/
• "You can see with the new context of a cross-section there is significant thickening of the peg in the east at depth (this is where Azimut should try to hit and hope that its mineralised as the true thickness is about 65m). Generally the main peg seems to swell at roughly 50m depth. So the main unit [i.e. main zone] now sits at ballpark 39.376Mt with grade unspecified as there's now more unmineralised pegmatite within the model, but we'll assume 1.1% as this is reasonable and should be achievable."
• "Then there's the footwall - generally its more of a sh*tshow with drill spacing and potentially undisclosed unmineralised sections. But again, from the above contextual cross-section we know there's 100% a singular domain with varying grade ... its ballpark 36.644Mt as well, again assuming 1.1% Li2O grade with inclusion of unmineralised sections.So combining the main body and footwall, the resource sits at 76Mt."
• "And then we get to what is the 3rd domain which was potentially alluded to in the cross-section ... there's another rogue lithium assay previously released to the market in hole AD-23-047 which hit 7m of mineralised peg from 410.2 - 417.7m which sits 101m away. So 3rd domain confirmed. Tonnage unknown, but there's a northern grav target which it likely comes from.""With the footwall rotating towards the north, which you can see slots directly into the grav anomaly, I can pretty confidently say the eastern holes are the main adina body so I'm pretty happy to slot that out to the east. The footwall I've modelled out to some arbitary region with what should be able to be drilled out in 6 months. Tl;dr ...125Mt by June next year (0% cut off btw). Add in a SW grav anomaly target which coincides roughly with a regional-scale dextral shear zone (probably responsible for the peg structures btw) and theres maybe some peg in there. Throw in a guaranteed 3rd domain with a likely 4th."
• "deep pegmatite intervals in the depths (380m+) of soon-to-be-released holes 91, 92 and 104 will confirm a 3rd pegmatite domain." [now confirmed in most recent announcement]