Firstly I don't understand where posters are saying $1.35 NTA,...

Firstly I don't understand where posters are saying $1.35 NTA, yet AMP own investor presentation says $1.24


From page 25.

Secondly, remember as divisions are sold off, future profits will drop. So its not a simple case of buying on depressed earnings that go up in the future as the divisions are turned around!!!. The sold divisions give a one off cash hit (division sold) but lower future earnings.

Yes share price under NTA gives increasing comfort the more the share price drops below NTA. But remember AMP will continue to burn money through 'transformation cost out' bloated head office etc.




So by 2025 market is 'forecasting' EPS at 10c (and I don't even know if this reflects the updated consensus giving the disappointing and miss in the FY22 numbers.

Well 10c against $1.24 NTA is not even a 10% return on NTA (ie hard assets). Does this sound like a really profitable business?

Thirdly, AMP will get hit if financial markets deteriorate.

So its a case of me being conserative. Return of my capital as well as return on my capital. I always focus on risk vs return and primarily safety in the return of my capital. Risk/return: upside/downside. Its uncertain. Return of my capital: protected to some degree by the discount of NTA, but still the risk of market pricing of that NTA. Dividend support: minimal, look at that crappy future dividend yield out to 2025!!!.

So its a case of thanks, but no thanks, happy with my capital intact, and I can watch from the sidelines.