Hi JalwaRe: "CATH continues to date us but keeps pushing off the...

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flight996

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18/06/22

11:28

Post #: 62070095
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Originally posted by Jalwa: ↑

I don't like anything about this announcement, except that we are still in trading halt. My hope was that the arbitration request would be considered spurious and thrown out. Now we are debating jury/arbitrator panel composition.

With AVZ being my largest single holding, I am also unhappy with mining licence not being a done deal. The Law seemed to suggest that we can get it automatically through courts 30 days after completing all requirements. I was also confused, probably my mistake, by assuming that Dathcom owned Roche Dure but Carriere was 100% ours.

CATH continues to date us but keeps pushing off the wedding. I am assuming they have an understanding of Zijin's game and want to be sure it's addressed before taking the plunge.

My conservative scenario now is that AVZ can lose 15%. Unlikely, but no longer impossible. I think even with 51% stake, the stock is seriously undervalued but some of the sheen is lost.

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Hi Jalwa

Re: "CATH continues to date us but keeps pushing off the wedding. I am assuming they have an understanding of Zijin's game and want to be sure it's addressed before taking the plunge".

We should all be under no illusion that both CATH (CATL) and Zinjin have deep connections within the Chinese regime, and will ultimately do and say what their Beijing ringmasters tell them. This is both a political and commercial endeavor for China to gain control of the biggest and tastiest lump of cheddar around.

With Beijing's backing and influence, this is a high risk play for AVZ regardless of its apparent good title and provenance.

Finally, with no leadership coming from the DRC govt, Felix's new anti-corruption agenda risks being seen as nice words and business as usual. If so, it's back to a zero sum game where the biggest paper bag wins. China has plenty of form in this street fight.

Cheers
F

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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