nice. yeah, this has always been very reactive to the pricing ...small changes in the anticipated FX and sand price make massive changes to revenue projects. it's been speculated that the pricing in both BFSs was very conservative... I suspect that it will be higher but with forward payed offtakes may equate to the $38usd, but that eliminates the debt (or a large portion of) which changes the numbers again.
for my money the bfss are based the most unfavourable economic conditions.
- bottom draw pricing
- very high commercial interest rates
- 2c higher exchange rate
- 20% contingency
- debt financing the entire build
- slow ramp up
- no price escalation in 25 years.(noting sibelco last year jump their prices by 13%).
buuuut that's a good thing, it reads like a ho hum run of the mill project....however if they can reduce one or most of those numbers you start to crawl back into big big dollars.
all just math..don't like a number? just change it to match your desired outcome
EPA has strangled the life from V, the economics, no matter how constrained suggest a profitable activity. question is by how much.. good news is we get to check again in 3 years with the updated, updated bfs while still waiting on epa....
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nice. yeah, this has always been very reactive to the pricing...
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