I am not sure the transition would be easy, a very select management team with local experience that would be hard to replace. I propose that connection with locals (government and officials) is still paramount at this stage, and any suitor would be taking quite a risk. I would have thought not all of the big holders would signup together for that... and retail has some influence on share numbers if that is the case. Too early in my book - but I am not completely discounting your theory.
But in my opinion the share make up has some pretty committed parties (they represent a fair chunk of their investment funds considering AVB is a junior)... hence providing me further confidence at these prices - so I just cannot see them wanting out early, or committing to a strange partnership to take-over. Perhaps if they could keep the SP down long enough then moods may change with the big four, thus fulfilling your theory.
Or perhaps the methodology being used by the buyer this time round may just more suspicious then normal?
For me without serious buyers, not sure I can make a clear call on SP behaviour as it all about the sellers at the moment... could it just be normal manipulation by mid size holders - but one thing the last few weeks has proven to me is the SOI is not an issue. At times with almost no volume and at these prices if SOI was an issue there would have been constant churn.
Keep me updated on your analysis though, like to look at this manipulation from all angles, and I am certainly no expert...
Gus
AVB Price at posting:
7.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
