I completely disagree with the dividend being unsustainable. Management have stated further expansion into the packaging market would likely be organic, therefore there should likely be a reduced acquisition expenditure moving forward. Looking at the cash flow statement, dividends only make up approx 30% of the positive cash flow in a normal year which hasn't got the high abnormal expenses such as bedding down the Ovato deal, which seeing this is almost finished we should revert back to around 80-90% EBITDA cash conversion (or close to) in 2H FY24 and beyond.
As for Jacpack, IVE already had $10M of packaging contracts that run through its business. I'm sure most of, if not all of that will now be headed Jackpacs way, plus the synergies. If IVE continue to buy more packaging companies, that's when I'd start to be concerned but it looks like IVE will be fitting out the Sydney location to grow organically.
As for Lasoo, who cares... we are losing around 10% of NPAT or a meagre 5% of cash flow on this business, not great, but definitely not going to sink the ship... if management have stuffed up and decide to exit, then oh well life goes on and we take a small hit and move on with the profitable arms.
The risks to me are why is the chairman selling??? but someone is buying...
And also if the decline in web offset printing continues to decline past this FY, only time will tell, we won't get an update on this until Aug next year.
I'm more than happy to hold until next August and reassess year by year.
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