ORG 0.89% $10.19 origin energy limited

Hard to disagree with AusSuper, if anything it highlights how...

  1. R21
    1,403 Posts.
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    Hard to disagree with AusSuper, if anything it highlights how junk the first (well 2nd) bid was.

    Original:
    AUD component 4.34
    USD component 3.194 (priced at AUDUSD0.70)
    less 2 divs of 0.165 & 0.20 for Feb-23 and Sep-23 respectively.
    plus tick fee of 4.5cps from 30 Nov to implementation date.

    Marking the USD portion to spot FX rates bring the value of the original to 9.03 exclusive of tick fees, which perhaps should be 2 months.
    Call total cash consideration of ~A9.12.

    Now the revised bid has come in at ~9.50 (depending on FX) with an extended tick fee date. Revised is only 4% effective increase on original bid at spot FX. The 8% ORG board publish in their announcement is very misleading IMO.

    I think it's pretty obvious the scheme will fail and Brookfield will end up using the standstill agreement and going off market for 50.1%.
    Sounds like they've done significant polling and lie somewhere in 50-70% yes.




 
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