Hi all,
Thought I would have a quick check with my figures to make sure I wasn't kidding myself with BGS.
Below is a quick comparison with one of my favourite lithium stocks, PLS.
The comparison is very simple but I did it because PLS data is very robust i.e. their PFS and DFS documents are of very high quality. About 95% of figures are pulled from BGS/PLS documents, note that as I calculate royalties and free carry for BGS I included the royalties and native title costs for PLS (as per their 2mt DFS and 4mt PFS documents). For BGS I used cost of 370/t, as you can see in PLS scale will reduce these as well. BGS 4mtpa figures are guesses (no data).
I worked out NPV's for 20 years at 10% discount (well excel did) for BGS and PLS on spod prices being $600, $800 and $1000. Then I converted that into a share price value.
BGS current share price = 0.70
PLS current share price = 1.02
The only real thing I see that is preventing us from hitting those valuations is dilution from financing. PLS has announced a 5mtpa plant instead of 4 but that's the document I had to work with. Even so, their current price gives you an idea of what we could be looking at in 12-18 months time. Even PLS won't produce for another few months. $4-5 IS a very real possibility, particularly if we can finance with no further dilution. Otherwise could be looking more towards $2-3.
Just bouncing the ideas in my head around, just seems obvious how lowball our valuation is considering most of the recent info we have isn't even factored into the above calcs. Seem to be trading in this 70-80c range but should be gravitating to a $1 floor over the next month or two surely.
(20min delay)