Hey Buc, are all the Samsonites in church? Quite here - thought there would be quite a bit of discussion to read through.
Glady's does look like it has responded very well to artificial lift with the ESP. Perhaps as SSN say it will shift the perception of it being a "modest producer". Makes for interesting conundrum in development - ESP increases LOE but clearly has increased production which improves payback (and hence IRR). Wonder what CLR thinks will be needed for development.
No new news on HS-Bluff and N discovery. Have to wait on that one.
Looks like Mar/Jun Qtrs are going to be a bumper Qtrs for production - hopefully a lot higher than the AGM estimates given - and that will make comparable Boe figures improve.
Good also SSN felt comfortable in drawing down further on their revolver - don't think they would do that if there was possibility of it being reduced.
How about some numbers? Here's what I wrote in the YASNY thread http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14632678/single
I prefer the 10-Q as its easier for me to digest, but given what was written in the Qtrly
SSN noting cash G&A reduced 43% in the comparable 6 mth period to $2.3M. WELL DONE! And it will go lower with higher production in 2015.
Thus cash G&A and a "current view" stands at $24.83/Boe (I overcharged by 6 cents estimated $24.89 - sorry)
I'll take the $1,453,000 production costs to mean LOE and taxes which totals $30.76/Boe (I noted $35.84 and said that seemed to high - which it was). Matches up reasonably to the SSN "Lifting cost" number.
Interest of $143K comes to $2.85/Boe (I estimated $3.19 - but then lower production of 48,670 was pre announced)
Implied Cash Cost = $58.44
SSN noted average oil price of $59.78 - this I presume is a weighted average price and for SS more production was earlier in the Qtr. I used a simple average for the 3 months off of PAALP and got $55.83 -- tells me that PAALP is a good proxy for SSN spot price.
SSN overall avg price per Boe (before hedging) for Q4 is $54.98 (I clipped off a bit at $53.18 - my bad estimating)
Add hedging gains of $229K or $4.57/Boe (this seems very low to me) ---- so $59.55/Boe (I estimated $70/Boe but with much higher hedging gain).
Leverage - it is your interpretation of my posts that is negative. I'm just crunching SSN numbers. I could make a positive like the "cash loss per Boe production is only $x and this is considerably less than peer company Y" but I choose to let the reader determine whether the resultant review of numbers is good or bad. COP had an ugly Qtr on its numbers but it was less ugly than others (e.g. HES). People see numbers in all different lights - maybe some rose colored glasses will help. If I am not properly informed as you put it, please point out in the Qtrly where my misinterpretation lies.
Its a little more color and fact based . But take heart - greater production in Mar/Jun Qtrs (even at same oil price) will make the numbers improve. A rise in oil price makes them improve even more. A decrease in costs will make them look even better.
SSN Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
