I find it odd he said this:
Also none other than Ken Brisden refutes Elon Musk on margins in refining. Ken was asked the following:“… but you said mining’s the hardest.Elon Musk is saying refining was the hardest and that's where the margin is. So,you are outwardly disagreeing with Elon Musk".
"(KB) Yeah, I'd love to know who's advising Elon because I couldn't disagree more, basically, with the position that he's taken. Refining capacity is not an issue globally. Sure, there's a concentration of refining capacity in China today, but I'm equally optimistic that that capacity is going to be built out elsewhere around the world, and bear in mind, to build chemical capacity - realistically something like 18 months to 24 months, but a mine is measured virtually in decades as to the delivery of its capacity and that mismatch cannot be solved in short order.I feel like he's either a genius talking his own book because he wants us all to believe that there is excess raw material, or in fact he's been poorly advised, because I just cannot agree with that thesis."But then also said this:
https://unauthorised investment advice/resources/the-shape-of-lithium-to-come-ken-brinsden-plays-free-jazz-on-next-10-years-of-lithium/Stating:
But Brinsden, who calls spodumene with its 6% and below lithium oxide purity an inefficient way of shipping lithium to customers overseas, thinks the midstream products currently being studied by incumbents Pilbara Minerals andMineral Resources (ASX:MIN)could be the way of the future for Australian producers.
“The only reason spodumene is in the market today is it’s a quirk of history. There was a by-product concentrate stream coming from the Greenbushes mine that had nowhere to go because there was no chemical conversion capacity in Australia, obviously.
“So it went to China and then eventually sufficient volume was coming that it inspired the chemical conversion market in China.
“So a new market developed but the only reason it was there was because originally it was a byproduct. It is an incredibly inefficient carrier of lithium. Actually it’s horrible. You don’t want to ship spodumene and I think the market’s waking up to that.
“Pilbara is pioneering a path to a much improved product that will establish a global footprint well beyond spodumene and I honestly believe that’s actually what’s going to happen because there’s so much logic and the logic is really compelling.
“Lower carbon footprint, minimises the waste in the destination market, means you can bypass China and land your product in Europe or North America in a really competitive way. So I’m firmly of the view that’s the direction that the market is going to go.
“Lastly, economically, it’s unbelievably compelling for the miners, because the miners start to compete with revenue from a chemical perspective as compared to just being a miner. And the credit is like 10 or 20 times the revenue that you would otherwise generate with spodumene.
“So it’s really important for the industry and actually, I’d argue it’s important for WA, that is exactly what should happen. And I think it’s going to happen faster than people are currently giving it credit for. So I don’t think spodumene is going to be in the market in about 10 years’ time.”
Brinsden compares the midstream product being pioneered by Pilbara in its $105m JV withCalix (ASX:CXL)to mineral sands, a long established industry in Australia.
So from this perspective margins may have been better for miners in the past. But the outlook both himself and I have for the future is the same in that Chem will be the next "Flavour of the month" and Chem will be where future margins are made.
An again, I understand SYA is in a bad position atm but if you cannot see the industry outlook as some of the best in the business and what the future holds, Then quite simply you get left behind. An a big then SYA need to push for as soon as the belt can be loosened is Spod conversion of Hydro or Carb idc which.
So from that end my perspective is a wave of demand for Carb and Hydro next, not so much Spod. However, based on that outlook the reset after may be spod based if no spod production has by that time dried right up and chemicals can source new supply. But anyway now we are talking 20 years +
(20min delay)
