It's great to see this perspective. I too would've done things differently if I was captain of the ship.
Some decisions frustrated me and yes, felt amateur. Would've secured $150M PIPE before starting the multimillion dollar, 1-2yr long journey to listing. That's the thing about SPACs, it's supposed to eliminate the need to rally instos to support your project... redemption undo all of that. Full disclosure: we redeemed too and early - it's risk free financially. Anyway no point discussing what happened and what could've happened, since we don't captain this ship. Theres been enough reflection, I feel, so best to look at where the company is and where it's heading.
I agree and we're both on the same view here that things could've been done differently, despite your approach differs to mine, 100% agree that the IPO should have been targeted to funding mine construction phase - ready and waiting for raised funds at day 1 of listing. This phase is when big funds can be confident to the viability of the project to reach production, as we both know, and so should management.
There remains 22 instos invested holding approx 3M shares of CRML (~3.7%) which needs to expand. Deutsche Bank AG and UBS Group AG pulled out. That's not nearly enough to give confidence... at the same time though gives hope that there's room for growth.
As such, in my view provided there is transparency of EIA as the last hurdle to receive full approval to enter construction, there would be every reason to believe what should have happened at IPO can happen then (at approval based on completion of EIA).
Obeikan deal, it's happening as we speak. I understand why you think it will drag on but this one surprises even the best of us. It was never in the plan to begin with, came at left field and driven predominantly by Saudis to realise their foot in the door of the lithium supply chain. Just as it was surprising (in a good way) when it came to light, I therefore have a different perspective to yours and that it will be finalised in the next month, with an announcement soon. That $400M loan commitment is binding, it's the devil in details that's being hashed out. But I'm personally not at all hoodwinked into believing that is all what Tony is working on with the Saudis - I'm aware of the Saudis wanting green hydrogen to then power their own green steel manufacturing, and Tony is in the iron ore business too (I mused it's an attempt to resuscitate CLE back into play).
Unfortunately, it's ultimately not our own vision and simply investing in Tony's and what he says goes. Or simply just not invest if the path to that vision has too much uncertainties. From my perspective, we came to the conclusion that risk/reward was worth investing in. Due to the level of uncertainties, our usual 2yr expectation for initial return is double, and this is unique to the portfolio. Using a poignant example, VUL, invested 15c-20c 2H 2019, exited $14 2H 2021, only just re-entered again at $2 average Feb 2024. Compared to EUR's 5c entry in late June/early July 2022 and been stagnant ever since, which I have been transparent (scarcely enough) to that effect that our price target is 30c (with a level of hopeful thinking it happens before 2yrs is up). Such is the nature of our portfolio based on my sentiment how and when a company will unlock value, attract institutional investment and the team finding the bottom oversold price. I'm giving this information just so you have an appreciation of my thinking around EUR, and decision to invest at bottom price 5c when found (funny enough coincidentally same time and price as Tony's personal acquisition of EUR shares) despite the risks just 4months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
2yrs is not up yet but do I think EUR is more valuable as a company today than it was July 2022? My sentiment is a resounding yes. The market may see it differently as we speak but we've never conducted our valuation based on what the market thinks. The market ignores the DFS and offtake agreement just to name two. And being in M&A, if that was the case, I'd be out of the job.
Point taken though on going concern, which I've mentioned here a few times. Cash and cash equivalent is always first point of consideration with every valuation so CRML/EUR gets a negative strike at first view and first impression always count. Which loops back to my view of the need for $150M threshold.
In any case, I like EUR for far more than just profit making. I think it's a great many 1st for ASX listed companies. So far it hasn't disappointed on those lessons of firsts. The buy back, the SPAC merger, the Middle East hydroxide plant, etc.
Lastly, I'm pretty confident EUR will rise in value the moment Ukraine war ends. Hence my overall sentiment it's not a matter of "if" but "when". Who knows when that will be but we'd rather be in than out.
Cheers
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