Slip of the tongue there, sorry - that's late night posting for...

Slip of the tongue there, sorry - that's late night posting for you. Apply your own PE, I meant to say.

I can hopefully clear up a couple of things, actually. Last night I jumped straight to the cost table I remembered seeing on the last page of the April presentation (pg 23), and did my own calculations, but GMC had actually already done them on Page 8:

2 smelters - 31,640t FeMn alloy - net margin A$29.2m (US$21.9m)
4 smelters - 72,430t FeMn alloy - net margin A$70.3m
6 smelters - 113,000t FeMn alloy - net margin A$111.6m
8 smelters - 153,680t FeMn alloy - net margin A$152.4m (assuming constant variables over ~4 years)

These figures aren't too far off GMC's estimates from 2 years ago - 32kt with 2 smelters and 144kt with 8 smelters. They also expected the full expansion to happen over 4 years - https://finfeed.com/mining/gmc/gmc-...-its-indonesian-manganese-alloy-hub/20150512/

I don't know how to determine an appropriate PE - do you factor in the forecast profits in 4-5 years time? - so I'll just steal from @notlistening14's example of a PE of 9 here: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/gmc-where-are-we.3366597/?post_id=24115533. Btw mate, any reason you used an exchange rate of 0.6 in your calculation? Unless I'm reading it wrong.

- 2 smelters, A$29.2m profit (0.75 exchange), 100% ownership, PE 9, fully diluted
- Mkt cap of A$262.5m / 4.29b shares = $0.061/share

No where near as attractive as things looked 6 months ago, but still a 45% premium to today's SP, which is a bit better than a 60+% loss. It's also a 300% premium to the CR price, so you would hope the SI's will at least stick around. Even if that P/E ratio is too high, as long as GMC finally deliver on their full plan (big IF), this one could be worth hanging on to for a few years.

It also depends on the actual price of 80% FeMn alloy - does anybody know? I'm wondering if US$1500/t is simply the price set with Renova in the offtake agreement last November? The easiest Manganese indicator to find is the Mn price on InfoMine.com, but that is only current to March 31. It shows an 11% price increase between November and March, so hopefully GMC aren't locked in at an unfavourable price - http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/manganese/1-year/

Last thing to add, GMC actually forecast initial production of 22,000 tpa. I hadn't overlooked that, I just don't know where to fit it in to the estimates.