It will be 12 months or more before we get a good look at numbers for the combined business to get a better idea of the long term value.
In the meantime ...
Kevin Ball made an interesting comment on the call yesterday at 37:00, "... when I run the model I see EBITDA out of both of these businesses that's going to be with a 2 in-front of it if not a 3".
I take that to mean high $2b's - low $3b's.
Applying this very simplistically let's say that once debt is paid down in 3-4 years and div's restart:
EBITDA $3b
Less DA $0.6b (guestimate, approx. double today)
= EBIT $2.4b
Assume debt has been fully paid down (as a prerequisite to restart dividends)
Less tax @30% $0.8b
= NPAT $1.6bn
SOI 803m (entitled to div only)
= eps $2
= annual div payout @ 20-50% = $0.40-$1.00
Not bad for a steady state consistent dividend stream, at current coal prices, for the 'life of coal' (which is reasonable to believe extends well beyond the meaningful marginal DCF horizon of a valuation model ie. 10-15 years). With plenty of growth opportunities to pursue (Blackwater expansion, Duania-Winchester build and integration, 'big' Vickery etc).
A 20% sale of Blackwater would rapidly accelerate this timeline by paying down debt sooner, and ideally be a value accretive sale while locking in long term customers.
While coal price may drift low from here (and is likely to in the short term) others have noted that it should be constrained to the downside by the global cost curve, while any bump to the upside = more profit.
As @hagetaka and others have pointed out, sp is likely to drift down for a while as coal prices sag and until the market gets more visibility of the numbers, but useful to have some sense of the medium term horizon.
Looking forward to the ride on this.
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