IMO it has retraced for a number of reasons. Some beyond the control of the board and some certainly not.
What hasn't changed are the fundamentals of the project. They have been proven up. It is without doubt a VERY substantial resource and of sufficient grade to warrant a far higher market cap (in other macro conditions). Guinea is having production issues, China is running out of locally produced bauxite and there are production facilities in other regions that will also be hunting new supplies of high quality bauxite, even if not in the next 3 months. (Check presentation prepared by South32 for a recent BMO Capital Markets presentation.See slide 9 for Alumina Market update, thanks PGFin for the heads up)
Somewhat paradoxically perhaps, the issues that I saw as potential problems have now been solved. The PFS is getting closer and being run by a very competent person in James Durant. Pity they took so long to find him (though he wasn't free when they initially sought a project manager). However, he is there now and and I personally am far more comfortable with him in the role than I was with his predecessor. In addition, the recent appointment of Rick Smith will turn out to have been a very sound choice. He's recently left GAC, could have gone anywhere but chose Canyon. That is not insignificant (could write pages about his credentials in the bauxite space) . Which once again I am very pleased about. These two are the quality of people we need to take this through to success.
Yes PFS was delayed, but since early 2019 the target was end of 2019 so currently only a few months behind and now in what I regard as sure hands. I still think we will see the PFS well before mid-year. Given corona etc it is going to take longer than I expected or would like BUT I am more confident than ever that the project has the support it needs to succeed.
Share price? The whole world has gone mad! OZL sub $7, SFR approaching $3, MYL 3c, ERX 3c etc etc etc. In time they will all correct if they are sound businesses, which I believe all mentioned above are...and I'm sure they are all tightening their belts to deal with the current circumstances.
See you after the nuclear winter
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