I've stayed away from all this guessing of who MOU2 is as I'm...

I've stayed away from all this guessing of who MOU2 is as I'm not so fussed at all and whoever it ends up being, it will definitely be a changer for IAM based on what The IAM team have said so far. Just reading your message, a couple of things that I remember from the seminar that I thought I'd share:
- Paul was not at the Sydney seminar. It was originally discussed that he was at the Sydney one, but then later confirmed it wasn't him
- the risk committee of MOU2 has been apart of this whole process, from memory it was a large part
- one of the board members was also part of the risk committee team, I remember this as one thing I wanted to know was whether any of the board members was directly involved with the process.

A bit more speculating for everyone but that could possibly add to your argument that it's NAB.

Also, I agree with your other post that there should be no concern if not signed off in December which I think I've mentioned before, but there probably will be some concerned. Given the objectives set and the confidence by the IAM team, I think it will be prudent that they release an announcement with an update on MOU2 if it's not a go ahead in December. There are obviously different scenarios that can play out and they might be in a position that they are unable to release one though.