There are two critical keys to Jervois' survival. 1. USG. As...

There are two critical keys to Jervois' survival.

1. USG. As you've rightly pointed out, the cobalt price has seen three spikes in the past 20 years. The rest of the time, it has trended in a range that makes the ICO unprofitable. The market is in significant oversupply and we must assume that this oversupply (and thus depressed prices) will last for many years to come. There will be no near-term recovery in the cobalt price, despite the utterly ridiculous bullishness of Crocker. The ICO stays offline & continues its unsustainable chewing of cash unless the USG agrees to establish that strategic reserve and buy Co at a fixed-floor price with a 2 in front of it. I'd suggest a high 2 as well.

2. AustralianSuper. If Aussie Super's conviction is true and LT - then they will need to continue propping up Jervois with funding support. We've already seen how their support basically saved Syrah. Will they stick fat and replicate their support here? If they write more con notes in the coming months (which I see as the only way for Jervois to avoid breaching their debt covenant around minimum group liquidity) - then we may have a better sense of their mindset. It is my understanding that Aussie Super are planning to stick fat for the LT, however, nothing is ever guaranteed.

Very risky here.