A thorough analysis as per usual, thank you.
One thing that caught my eye from FY2022 was the rebound in the base business in the UK. While Covid related revenue declined 41%, base business revenue rose a healthy 24%, management pointing to a reversion to more normal NHS operations and referrals.
This UK experience kind of ties in to the overall group picture of things, when Covid revenue surged most (1H2022), the base business revenue fell half over half. Then in 2H2022 we saw a reversal and Covid revenue fell half on half and the base business revenue began to grow again. I guess this underpins management's expectation that the base business revenue growth is "expected to accelerate due to a backlog of testing". Additionally, we heard management talk about prudently holding spare capacity for virus outbreaks / variant testing / vaccinations. While some of this spare capacity may be reigned it, you would imagine some would also be devoted back towards their bread and butter diagnostic testing.
All in all I'm very comfortable with the outlook, especially when we saw the dividend for FY2022 rise by 10% and management clearly state that "the progressive dividend is expected to continue in FY2023 and beyond". This to me is an indication of the board's confidence in management's ability to dial up growth in the core business (aside from more possible acquisitions).
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