Hey Wassa,
I don't deny that the trend is not great (though you also provide only a viewpoint that you support by showing only those two graphs), but... it's still a profitable business, as compared to say... RRL which (up until it spent $100m+ on closing out its crap hedges) has not made any money for years.
I also agree, I was hasty to imply that WGX had a great quarter, it did not, but... considering the challenges it had (the Tuckabinna plant was basically out of action for approx 15 days, that is a huge chuck of time). Operational issues arise, they have been rectified, what else can they do?
I know you know... that a profitable business is not about volume, but margins... and until this quarter, WGX had been doing a great job of realigning the company away from ounces for ounces sake.
WGX is in a period of high spend on Great Fingal, Big Bell deeps and until recently Fender. This will continue for another 2 quarters, but... it's to bring on a 8 year LOM U/G mine, and another that will have a 16 year LOM. Something WGX has never had in any of its U/G operations (nor many U/G mines anywhere).
If you get a chance, though I understand you may not want to, the quarterly also released today is a great read, it's honest, clear and extremely detailed (not sure there are many better, and yes, I may come across as overly positive, but I am just being honest).
It was a busy quarter for WGX, even with all the issues they faced.
With, as I touched on, lots of upside to FY25 (the reality is FY24 was a mixed bag, after starting off so well).
To be clear, this quarter was a major miss in terms of grade and tonnage, though WGX makes it very clear where the issues were, how they have now been remedied, other than the closure of Paddy, which took a chunk of production out, that... until today, had been planned to be offset by very early Great Fingal ore, but instead it will hopefully come in FY25 (early).
Interestingly, WGX only sold 47k of gold, meaning they have a larger than usual inventory, which bodes well for the AISC in the June quarter, even with a lower amount of ounces expected to be produced.
I am not overly bothered by them again grouping the Murchison production together, as long as they continue to break it down further in the quarterly.... yes I am watching carefully WGX (I imagine part of this is in preparation for the merger and simplification of reporting).
Starlight is looking very positive for the near to medium term. With the addition of another dev crew (perhaps partially from Paddy). Though the real upside is explained here:
Also interesting to note that they are looking at mining at Peak Hill again, perhaps a small open cut mine? Though it's hard to find much on Harmony, other than it was a very higher grade open pit (shallow U/G possible?) Cutback with the high POG?
Big Bell slightly underperformed but looks like the mine plan forecasts a better quarter ahead. The exploration results bode well for... further extending the already long LOM! Which in the end augers well for a better ROI.
Bluebird also underperformed, albeit less tonnes, but higher grades.
I think in the recent update, it only showed the updated MRE, without the clarification of it be post mining depletion. Not often a long term producer is able to expand a brownfield deposit by over 500,000 ounces. Plus, pretty sure this is the first mention of Bluebird North being so prospective.
In some ways, I expected Paddy to be fully relegated to the end of the quarterly, but with hits like these, it's going to be hard for the team to ignore.
Hits of 655g is very.. impressive. All easily and quickly accessible if backed up with a airtight mine plan (but that will take time).
Fender finally ready to fully ramp up.
Great Fingall, is a mixed bag, as in, part of the reason for guidance to be lowered, was a slowdown at accessing early ore at Great Fingall. Ounces are not lost, simply, delayed.
Though clearly it is still early days in exactly how they will best mine the new Fingal Flats and how many ounces are there (but it does look probable that they will make a contribution earlier than the planned ore in the reserves). I wonder if both a partial cutback of the open pit and U/G extraction is possible?
More and more inhouse expertise hopefully brings greater synergies and efficiencies, which will be multiplied post merger with Karora.
Exploration... great, 16 targets for FY24 (likely many will slip into FY25).
I also like that WGX is hiding nothing. Some of the call options were... called, only a small amount so far (2,500), though likely another 2,500 for April, but... $3340 is still a great price to be selling ounces at and they run out in June.
Would have liked to attend the webcast, though I think the quarterly covers everything in detail.
I will say again, I think the quarterly is very well written and a hit tip goes to the team who put it together (would have taken many hours of work).
With all the issues, I think production would have been quite a bit higher (perhaps 55k+), hopefully no repeats of the weather event!
Good luck to all holder and whilst dividends are not exciting, I appreciated mine.
(20min delay)
