MYX 0.73% $5.41 mayne pharma group limited

Ann: MYX signs license agreement for novel oral contraceptive, page-69

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    I am 70/30 on a market upgrade between now and the end of the year, so i think 74c is definitely in play. But well before Xmas. Ask many here if they thought ~59c was possible only 5 weeks ago (43.5c) and there would have been a cautious reply (except from Charts). Sure most believed it was oversold to the point of absurdity, but markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so the saying goes.

    But on this deal for a second, 'expected to be EBITDA positive in its first full financial year following approval' and this, 'Peak net sales potential to exceed US$200m P.A', personally i think that is being cautious given Nuvaring is worth ~$1b USD/P.A. and this is a 'native estrogen' and the first new estrogen in the US in ~50 years. I think hose two factors are compounding positives. I suspect their analysis is calculated on a cautious/undersold projection, which is the right way to approach it, but it means the ~19c/share/P.A. (USD $200m*$1.49AUD/1.58b shares) earnings has a much higher potential than has been reported.
 
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