Ann: Operational Advisory and Enercom Conference Advice, page-31

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buc

7,887 Posts.

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20/02/15

11:48

Post #: 14790133
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

Hi Buc,

Take this as a compliment - you would make a terrific politician as you have a flair for deflecting points that challenge accuracy (I agree - costs are coming down, whether its 10,15,20,25% they are definitely coming down - but then why why why put $3M in the slide - that's all I'm saying). I know you can do that math - one hopes Terry could too. Perhaps the good Doctor can find a picture along the lines of "Uncle Sam needs you poster" but with TB/SSN beckoning Buc.

Hi PVD

I would agree - any chart referencing decline curves or well productivity are 100% and not WI%. While there are many variants of the Bakken decline curve the argument would really only center around how large a decline (70% yr or 60% year1 ,.... or what b factor and terminal decline to use) and how the well design and completion (lateral length, frac stages, type proppant & how much, choke management) optimizes the EUR versus the cash flow (the flashy IP rates).

That said this is the data that SSN chooses to publish. Like someone else said - there are some smart guys crunching numbers - probably working at MOB - and they would be very very interested in such things as production (past, present and future) and costs and hedging as they do the cashflow forecast that goes along with that bothersome Borrowing Base debt.

And that should absolutely not be taken with a grain of salt (IMHO).

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From my limited knowledge, new large offshore projects are not viable at today's prices. If TB can set the company up now with conventionals, and make money at $50 , when the price eventually recovers to $80, profits to all.....

SSN Price at posting: 1.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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