SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Steve, I wasn't sure where you got this from as you provided no...

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    Steve, I wasn't sure where you got this from as you provided no link or context. However, I managed to find it in the Enercom review completed prior to the Enercom Conference in London on 10 June. The following is the complete paragraph which includes the comment you provided:

    "Based on Samson’s North Stockyard development plan, we estimate that production in Q4’14 could average approximately 1,100 BOEPD net, which is more than double the Q1’14 rate of 413 BOEPD. A peer group of four other Bakken operators, including Triangle Petroleum, (ticker: TPLM), Kodiak Oil & Gas (ticker: KOG), Continental Resources (ticker: CLR) and Northern Oil & Gas (ticker: NOG) were trading at an average EV to BOEPD of $179,456. If we applied this metric to the estimated Q4’14 average production rate for SSN, Samson’s implied Enterprise Value is $197.4 million, or 354% higher than the approximate EV of $43.5 million at May 30, 2014".

    I feel the application of ~$180k / BOEPD is a bit generous, SNN use a peer average of $145k in the presentation. Using the peer average and assuming we are producing 1100 BOEPD by year end (which is looking very achievable with current operations and rate of production increases) our EV should be $159.5 million by the end of 2014, or 5.4cps. I said last week that based on the company's forward production projections we should be at about 5-6c by year end. The Enercom evaluation seems to be in agreement.

    As I've said before, these projections are based on the "easy win" North Stockyards development only and place no value on potential production upside from wildcats. If the Defender refrack goes ahead or Bluff is determined as being commercially viable, these will only add to the valuation.

    Link to the full Enercom evaluation:

    http://www.oilandgas360.com/samson-...-stockyard-project-dj-basin-exploratory-well/
 
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