Cmon, I probably have you and the old SSN gang to thank (or Blame
) for my interest in O&G. As I continually find out O&G is complex and just as things make sense something new comes along and adds a new dimension to consider. Imo it is therefore wise to consider all views and adapt or discount. As my approach is more predictive the coy anns are as you say confirmation only. My opinion is mostly based on my research/analysis and ideally my numbers are different which then provides leads on the knowledge gaps and continual improvements. Mistakes are inevitable if we are having a go, same for most things in life I guess.
At the moment I find the production planning the most interesting and think SSN's current position is somewhat unique due to the pad concept. We can look at an individual well, pad, bench or whole of project and depending on what level we use will probably get a different answer for future production levels.
The throttling at a whole of project could probably be achieved by turning individual wells on and off or by changing flows overall or different combinations so will be interesting over the next few months to test this theory . There is imo evidence of this over the past few months from looking at the ND prodn reports but that is just my observation and could be wrong. For interest I have copied the company diagrams below which come from the February 2014 coy presentation.
View attachment 80193
Overall, I think the current total capacity at the project level should be higher than we are seeing and therefore there may be other limiting factors to consider such as Storage, Transport (trucking?) availability, the Pipeline's mentioned plus some commissioning/tie in challenges, also Oil/Gas price. Prior to this the need to shut in wells to develop the new wells was a limiting factor but appears to be complete atm.
If my posts appear bullish that is not my intent, SSN is an interesting company which I think we can learn a great deal from and apply to other companies, imo the company is and has been well run and should be able to generate cash in this environment with existing assets however O&G sentiment in general is low and a major driver atm so how individuals balance those two conflicting views is a personal choice or risk/reward consideration. I have no O&G experience and for readers understanding that is important.
Enjoy the rest of the day, am glad the suns out as it is freezing.
Cheers
