A balanced view atm would acknowledge that the major driver at the moment is primarily Oil Price and poor sector sentiment. Momentum traders have no interest in O&G stock fundamentals as the volume on almost all of them is negligible, also interest in discussing them is also negligible and that can be seen after every company announcement. The lack of interest over a sustained period of time has effected almost all O&G stocks.
Management do not control the oil price, therefore to blame management for the flow on effect to SP for the significant drop in Oil price is imo unjustified. Very few analysts last year predicted the drop or the size and I doubt have any confidence in their current projections. All we can do is look at the company specific announcements and form our own opinion as to how that pans out.
Imo mgt here have done a good job and should be commended for the successful development of the Stockyard creek prospect. Production numbers have been stable for 4 months as the wells are commissioned and I expect the quarterly due this week will be good despite the low oil price.
Since July 2008 mgt have raised US$47m in CR's and increased debt by $2m, there are now 25 producing wells which roughly cost $2.5 each. Sure the capex/opex spend has been high but that money did not all come from shareholders, Land and O&G sales significantly funded a fair chunk of the exploration and development. O&G exploration is risky and expensive and imo it is inevitable that any explorer will experience dusters and delays. If we don't accept that we should carefully reconsider our involvement with the sector.
As best as I can work out this is the production profile over that time based on the data from the ND govt monthly reports.
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Each person will have a different opinion and that is a positive. All opinion's (mine included) are biased by personal experience, risk tolerance, research and many other factors. Imo considering respectfully all views will give the best chance to make a good decision.
Irrespective of the current SP there is a great deal to learn from the current situation. Markets turn quickly and the best sports teams train harder in the off season to ensure they are competitive when the whistle blows or flag falls. Same applies here.
All above is my opinion only
GLTA
