SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Not by a long shot Buc. Just on the article you posted .... how...

  1. 10,766 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3519
    Not by a long shot Buc.

    Just on the article you posted .... how do you read that? It's actually very negative for oil.

    China rebuilding it's strategic reserve is a "false positive" on real demand. Many analysts (economic and investment) would call "China" a proxy for world demand - as in approx 50% correlation. And China is slowing (sure it has a GDP of +/- 7% depending who you believe but that's down considerably). I was there last week in a port city with heavy industrial, petrochemical, refining, electronics and IT sectors and it was pretty visibly quiet (idle cranes etc.). IMO real demand is slowing (and apparently faster than than true supply growth and capacity).

    Couple that with things like Iran being "welcomed back" to international trade and you have real increase in supply. Most of that will target Europe so Brent becoming weaker (unsure what will happen to WTI/Brent spread) is likely. Iran also has stockpiled a lot of ultra-light and condensates - which are challenging to sell given the mix of oil that the refiners need. This is why you see such a push for crude oil exports coming from the US onshore shale producers - they are literally drowning in LTO, particularly in EFS which already has exported such cargoes.

    I'm not seeing oil price strength anytime soon. Like I said, hopefully there are spikes (upwards) that my E&P companies can take advantage of to hedge into 2016. I think we'll see a different E&P landscape in the USA 2017. The hydrocarbons themselves are not going anywhere but the potential value presently assigned is. So while share prices drop I am not adding (even to company such as COP who has to be a top 10 US E&P in terms of low-cost/high quality but any metric). Time to be selective and conservative.

    There's been a trading range for WTI between $50-$60 for last couple of months or so. We're at the bottom of the channel now. If it breaks don't all signals point to retest of the Q1 lows of around $42?
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add SSN (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.