My ongoing spreadsheets say that based on WTI pricing avg $47.93/$39.67/$41.91 for Jul/Aug/Sep and a Bakken differential of between $8-$11 and applying an (historical) uplift to infer realized price for SSN does not give a great picture. The decline in boepd obviously increases costs on a boe basis.
I have overall cash margin for the Qtr was $0.26 per Boe (with Aug and Sep being negative). This is of course measured "instantly" so not the actual cash going in and out of the corporate back account. But it will as TB points out show up approx 30-60 days later..
IF that is true (cash margin of $0.26/Boe) then the good news has to be somewhere else ('cos its not in the financials). One of the culprits in this calculation is G&A expense (where I'm using the ~$1.15M per Qtr estimate) which is obviously rising as boe declines.
Rough estimate of TTM EBITDAX is I believe +/- $3M. If correct then covenant breach coming IMO (assuming it has not changed from a 3.5 multiple). Best solution (IMO) is get the multiple raised to 4.5 and if it costs a little more in interest then so be it.
Something must be about to happen though based on volume traded in US and the share price appreciation one would think
GLTA
SSN Price at posting:
0.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
