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20.0¢ firefinch limited

Mate whichever way you put it.. someone dropped their game and...

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newbieguy

1,824 Posts.

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08/07/22

11:56

Post #: 62440120
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Originally posted by Red Baron ↑

A few thoughts

We missed guidance by around 5,000 oz (using a mid point) At say US$1830/oz that would represent about A$13m in revenue
Our cash burn cf the March Q was about $97m less $41m so about $56m, if we had the above revenue it would have been around $43m
We also paid out $20m for Leo & didn’t use tax credits for the duty. The duty alone would have been a bit over $1m + VAT not claimed ??

This does lead me to think if we control our costs, produce 8-9k pm (24-27k per Q), we should be able to turn a profit

Alistair bought on May 13 ($81k @ 85c) so assume all was going well then (half way thru the Q), that was also prior to the Goldman report on Li pricing, he probably expected Leo to go better than it did.

Brad Gordon & Brett Fraser bought ($27k @ $70k @ 35c ish ) on June 6 , They only get paid around $70k pa + incentives (which are a long way off based on our SP), they have 8 Board meetings a year so about 1 each 45 days. As they both bought the same day you’d expect there was some sort of collusion. You’d also expect they’d make a few calls to see if all was well. From Mike’s answer at the AGM/GM about if they’d make guidance (a long answer that avoided the question politician style), the mentions of costs (diesel) and problems getting some equipment in, I’d say they were very aware of the problems end of May, which makes you wonder why the Directors bought on market.

I’m not saying what I’m about to write is ethical or right - just a possibility worth considering

If FFX released the cost blow out & cancelation of guidance back in May going into a TH/Suspension, the demerger almost certainly would have been delayed if not cancelled. The asx/asic may even have disallowed it based on the financial position of the parent company. There is a big outcry ATM, and rightly so. I’d suggest if the demerger was put on hold/cancelled, the outcry would have been multiples of the present outcry. It is very possible the Board just came to the decision to complete the demerger, then deal with FFX’s problems. I’m not saying this would be the correct thing to do, but of the 2 bad outcomes, this would have been the better for Shareholders.

Who’d have though back then Lithium companies would drop 50% while Li prices remained strong, two thirds of shareholders value was in Goulamina/Leo. So if the above is the case at least 2/3rds of our interest was protected.

Another thought that crossed my mind was maybe the spin out should have been the other way around. So FFX keeps Goulamina and spins out “Goldfinch” which owns the gold assets. It would have been quicker (no transfer of the mining License) and shareholders would have 1 for 1 not 1 for 1.4 in Goulamina. Just a passing thought, probably wouldn’t have worked - I wonder if they considered it?

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Mate whichever way you put it.. someone dropped their game and got rewarded nicely to keep lying.

Ever since Mike got onboard and his first hideous crime of CR while denying it all the way.. I have been shouting transparency and regular update but was told to shut up and $$billion $$ companies don’t do regular updates on drills etc .. they all danced and sang Mikes song and praised him..

Alistair should now be transparent and have open/regular comms .. anything short of this is not acceptable after this debacle.. We need to see a full final costing studying with worse case scenario before the next CR is done.. this gorilla has a lot of gold in the ground and we know it.. just need to manage costs, draw a new plan out, set expectations and meet them regular and be honest of any changes.

A BOD with no SH’s trust is a recipe for administration.

Also, demerger didn’t do any good.. FFX actually lost 7mil in LLL shares plus shareholders are down from 70c to 48c.. 32% already .. destruction of wealth .. how I see

Last edited by newbieguy: 08/07/22

FFX Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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