Share
196 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1
clock Created with Sketch. 08/04/18
13:18
Share
Thanks PGFin,
Originally posted by PGFin
↑
In lay mans terms, I think there is a reasonably good chance that we may get another bidder. You need to look no further than the current shareholders in AVB to notice Greenstone and Glencore who have not rolled over for OZL.Greenstone direct competitor to Appian as private equity firms who specialize in providing funding for early stage resource companies. They will be more likely to butt heads than to fall in line with the other on takeovers such as this one. Appian may be happy to cash in now but Greenstone may see it differently and prefer to capture the larger upside value in AVB's project, than be diluted into OZL. Missed upside - remember that Greenstone have been on the register waiting patiently the capture the upside of Pedra Branca at minimum. They did not invest only to see Antas into production. With PB and Centro so close to milestone moments, I cant see them being happy to hand that upside to OZL.OZL shareholding - In this cash/script offer from OZL, I cant see a reason why Greenstone would want to be on OZL's register. Its not how they put their investors money to work and they would have to deal with unhappy investors of their own.Glencore Missed upside - similarly to Greenstone, Glencore have maintained a shareholding in AVB since AVB acquired Pedra Branca. That suggests to me that they would see a takeover at this stage as missed upside. I think that they also wanted to keep touch on what is one of the great mining areas on earth so that if the time is right OZL shareholding - similarly to Greenstone, do Glencore want to sit on OZL's register? I don't believe they are current holders and I recall the reporter on Skynews Business posing the same question to Andrew Cole. Strangely enough, I don't recall him addressing the question either.Gorilla - Glencore is a silver back gorilla and just like in the wild will not be pushed around by anybody. They will have a very good understanding of the value of AVB and will be just as likely to see this as being the time is right, from a cyclical point of view. They may may throw on offer in to force OZL's hand or they may decide that they will just take the lot.
Expand
