Not sure if this has been done but the seven most recent brokers calls are :
Carmichael 22c Jan 31st
Hartleys 16c 30th Jan
Petra Capital 15c Jan 29th.
Euroz 20c 18th Jan
Petra 15c 17th Jan
Cannacord 17c 15th Jan.
Hartleys 17c 21 Nov.
The average is 17.4c.
A company using its own internal methodology which may bear no resemblance to the standard broker modelling methods, can decide what a purchase bid would be. Valuing the tangible/quantifyable benefits and the intangible ones too.
Broker analysts may be constricted by conservatism such as copper at $3.00/lb, but a Company can do what it likes.
If it wants to internally value Centro at say $150m or $300m or whatever, then it will. Same with Pantera.
It can take a fair guess at the resource, and not be contrained by using data so far.
It can chase the truth. It answers to nobody. THEY will value it as THEY see fit and not as someone tells them. Not at 7.7c as the market suggested.. not at 17.4c as the so-called broker-analysts say. If top copper assets are needed as the present company ones are fading, what premium is attached to ensuring one's corporate longevity or survival? Such premiums are not considered by analysts.
So I am suggesting that there is a disconnect between a predator company's internal valuation and broker values as expressed by say the recent 17.4c broker average.
Broker values may set a notional floor price perhaps...? "floor" meaning bottom. A starting point.
What is the intangible value of a corporate structure with brilliant management, local operational skills and massive goodwill that has taken years to develop??
THEY and only THEY will work out a price for AVB that will work for them. Not a "fair" price either... fair does not come into anyone's equations. Only lowest bid price to do the deal. OZL and others have a duty to try and procure the company at the lowest level that they can.. without leaving themselves open to ridicule at the start. Not to be nice to AVB shareholders.
There is nothing to do but cross-fingers.. and wait and see.... no boat-rocking.
Fun to chat and speculate.... if a bid comes, what might it be??
IF it comes..
If no competitor ... around 17c is not too far out of the Broker ballpark at least.
Thanks everyone for all the thought provoking posts....
It is all crystallising... Great fun, and positive stuff. Just some idle Sunday thoughts/opinion...
Cheers, PP
AVB Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
