i understand your contribution. apparently you only really...

i understand your contribution. apparently you only really understood my posts in one direction.so again with a little more depth. mondy asked if anyone had already created a model with his conservative assumptions. i integrated his numbers into my model. admittedly, there were some problems with individual formulas, which are not excusable. i'm neither from the financial industry nor am i trying to make mathematically correct predictions here. the following graphics are neither investment advice nor a substitute for your own research. all figures are in usd.

so let's start with the dfs stage 1. i have listed the stage 1 investments made so far as well as other costs such as exploration and working capital under 'capex description'. i got the numbers based on the company graphic from the last placement. please note that i have already included a possible prepayment and possible financing from glencore. the numbers for this also come from the graphic included with the last placement. i added the annual interest rate of 10% myself. mondy will probably tend towards 12% due to the economic situation in argentina and the currently almost hopeless chances of returns in the lithium industry, but i am of the opinion that 10% will be appropriate. let’s dive in..

you can see from this graphic that my model matches the numbers from dfs stage 1 from july 3rd, 2023 in many points:



the calculations of my model only missed the ebitda of the study by a few dollars. the situation is similar with irr before and after taxes. even npv after taxes is pretty close to the study. for me, this is a sign that my model is working. at first glance the model seems quite overloaded. especially with regard to later assumptions regarding market cap and supposed price per share. i don't invite anyone to make financial decisions based on my personal assumptions.

now when i add mondy's numbers, i get the following:
-changed discount rate from 8% to 12%
- assumed lce price per ton 14,000 usd
additionally i made the following changes:
-recovery failure of 5%
- road & transport additional 50 usd/t
- g&a additional 50 usd/t
- Increase in annual sustaining capex by 10%
all other information remained as in the first model.



i could now draw further conclusions about stage two dfs. however, i need further data for this. it would currently be pure speculation to model an adjusted forecast with mondy's numbers. for anyone who is interested in how a stage two dfs works in my model, have fun. this is based solely on assumptions from the dfs stage two study.



so you can see that this project is allegedly profitable even at low prices. this is a crucial difference from your negative attitudes. of course, management has offended many investors with their 'all-or-nothing' strategy. they are not to blame for the economic collapse of an entire sector. i give jp's 'hunger' a lot of credit.