In previous corporate presentations, PIQ have (maybe a bit...

In previous corporate presentations, PIQ have (maybe a bit cheekily) compared themselves to TLX. Obviously they'd dream to have the same market cap.

Turns out there are a few comparisons to be made.

TLX had a similar situation where they decided they didn't quite have the money to carry through until earnings kicked in. They did a raise in Jan 2022. There was some director selling there too.

It's not quite the same: the TLX price had been going up and the cap raise seemed to kill the momentum for a while (of course we'll never know the counterfactual, maybe it would have slowed anyway). PIQ never really had that momentum in the first place.

The product got onto market in Q2 2022 and sales have been steadily increasing since then.

In the case of PIQ, sales receipts are now not likely to hit the company until Q3, and maybe it won't be until the end of the year before substantial revenues hit the bottom line (if they exist, but hey that's why we're here).

Company spending was slightly less than I expected last quarter, but typically they burn $1.5-2m per quarter so they've covered themselves for the year. If they pull in $2m revenue a quarter they should break even. Depending on your assumed royalty rate you can guess how many customers that is.

Given that the share price has not set the world alight since the Sonic deal, or even when the reimbursement price was announced, I suspect that the market has a "believe it when they see it" approach and that the price may not go off for a while yet.

I'm not quite sure why they couldn't hit the ground running in Q1. The rather vague comments about supply chains and qualified staff could be interpreted as "we didn't get out act together". This is what project management is about, after all. Still, easy for me to say.

I'm not going to write them off just yet but if the commercialisation gets delayed further I'll definitely start to worry.