Whilst you have to be pretty brave to put forward a plausible explanation for price action on any given day or any week, in the case of PushPay, it is pretty certain that what we have witnessed over the best part of this year relates to the partial divestment by the two founder directors. I am convinced that this has been a managed sell-off / placement of shares probably facilitated by a broker and involving many new partner shareholders (future stakeholders). The pattern of algorithm assisted trade over many months supports this.
Not sure if if you noticed the BUY side depth dipped to a mere 20000 units yesterday, recovering to just over 30000 at the close. If you accept that algo trade is generally conducted in odd numbers, what we saw yesterday was a clearing of virtually all (some long-standing) odd number buy orders, leaving no single order greater than 500 shares. The list is now
408 shares at 2.45 378 shares at 2.64 376 shares at 2.66 344 shares at 2.90 145 shares at 2.94
This substantial clearing coupled with the numerous large x trades earlier in the week possibly point to closure where the planned outcome is finally achieved. Placing 20 + m shares was always going to take time and there was always going to be an end-date. Given the associations of those divesting and the Company, like to think that this was conducted within a targeted timeframe. PushPays’ half year ends on Monday. Expecting a big bounce today and Monday.
Not sure if you agree, but there is a total inconsistency in the SP movements since the update on guidance. I have short term fair value at a min of $3.40 to $3.60 and when you bake in the future $4.80 to $5.60. So, IMO, this phase will pass and the SP will settle over the coming weeks.
If they restock the buy side this morning, I will suspend all efforts to ‘crack the ‘algo’ and limit my contribution to financial analysis, back in the box so to speak.
Rokewa
PPH Price at posting:
$2.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
