A word of thanks to management for a much improved and clearer communication effort with the quarterly. From my perspective, a clear outline of what has happened in the quarter to December and a very concise road map of what is ahead. All that shareholders can ask for at this point in time.
A few points about what has happened in the past with this company and some important pointers to the future. Privately, I’m been highly critical of the lack of clarity around why strategic decisions were made in regards to taking a different approach and strategy. Poor communication by public companies is just not acceptable and while some decisions are commercial in confidence or confidential for many acceptable reasons, shareholders should never be left to guess the basics.
Some of these macro decisions, Glenn Archer summarised perfectly with many of his points and I now understand why some others were made. I think it is instructive for shareholders to look back to the announcement in July last year about the Board reorganisation. Purely my opinion, but a line in the sand was drawn that day with the past and a new future began in September when a new leadership team actually took over the company. Toph’s post is instructive to validate my opinion if you like about the past versus the present/future.
Strategic and fundamental changes take time and don’t always run exactly as expected like following a recipe. I think we should be thankful for the input of a couple of our strategic investors imo who have been a strong support. We know why, and that is because they have their eyes on the prize PB.
It is tough times in commodity markets as we see daily. I feel a great deal of sympathy for TGS and DML (again) given the announcements by their management teams in the past 24 hours.
Solid and forward looking quarterly announcements don’t move share prices up for mining speccies in this tough market. However, stuff up and TGS and DML show you what can happen to your share price.
If you look at a price chart comparison of all mining companies for the past 12 months – producers and explorers – large and small – you’ll see that in the toughest commodity markets that I can recall, AVB has held up better than most.Look at a 12 month chart against AVB peers – TGS, DML, HCH, AZS, RXM – and it is even more favourable.
So context is always an important consideration when doing my research, history is an important lesson too as it can predict the future. The present is easy to use as an indicator because it is there right in front of you and right in front of us now are very, very tough times for commodities as we all know. Hence when the confirmation comes out from the company that finance has been signed off and draw down commenced, it will mark an outstanding achievement by management in this environment imo.
Given my investment horizon has always been geared towards late 2015 – 2018, I seek out a lot of information and guidance about the future of commodities and more specifically, pure play mining stocks. September last year was a light bulb moment for me as were a few private conversations with Directors after the AGM. Those conversations are now making sense to me and form the basis of what was reported in the quarterly.
The big miners, private equity and deal makers are all starting to position themselves for the turnaround in copper prices and the looming copper supply deficit. Finally, just a piece to share from a well respected independent research house.
