Glad to see you onboard here Cmonaussie.
Some of my thoughts:
- COE has indicated that they're aiming to retain a 40% interest across Sole and Manta;
- STO selling out completely is something I've not previously considered and it's an interesting idea. I believe COE's share price has been depressed by STO's woes and a question mark over STO's ability and willingness to give Sole development high priority. Surely though they'd want the cheap gas. A quality new entrant taking a substantial interest would help allay concerns.
- I've been looking at SVW as a potential JV party to COE and STO with SVW throwing in their Gippsland Basin holdings against Sole, Manta and Orbost- the Longtom pipline, though shut in, being already connected to Orbost it looks like a sensible tie up. I'm not sure what interest COE would end up with in that scenario - maybe 25% across the board? Funding is the obvious constraint. SVW have had a data room open on Longtom since September 2015, are still spruiking the east coast gas market, and are tagging Longtom as capable of being back in production by 2018. Basic data on SVW's holdings can be found in SVW's 8/5/14 investor presentation with limited production since that date as per the quarterlies. I understand that substantial capital needs to be spent to bring Longtom back online, let alone for further development, but Longtom, when operating, is a good producer. I believe SVW's Gippsland holdings are on their books for about $100m (though they paid Nexus way less). I believe SVW would see real value in both Sole and Orbost.
- re funding: maybe AGL could be imposed upon as a prepayment against sales or a new JV entrant give us some free carry. Regardless, I'm confident we'll fund a 40% interest in Sole though I wonder at funding for Manta with Manta 2 drilling mooted for late next year.
- what are your thoughts on COE's resolve to pre-sell 80% of expected annual production? To me it seems high when we're only looking for a 40% long term interest - our expected share of production is therefore fully committed (not considering any gas from Manta) unless agreements are partially assigned to any new entrant or we run with a 50% interest.
Anyway, welcome. I'll be glad of your insights here.
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