rationally what could it be? 1) withdrawal of approval stage...

rationally what could it be?

1) withdrawal of approval stage one?
unlikely. mgmt has very good contacts with the local government. permits has already been granted and construction work is progressing unceasingly.

2) stage one permits violation?
maybe government doesn't like the stage approach and they are worried that gln would be able to produce significantly more than the approved 5.4t in stage one. that would perhaps explain the appointment with the authorities a few weeks ago and the presentation there. glencore engineers may have made similar assumptions and this would partially explain the delay with respect to dd. it would also fit that the infrastructure planned for stage one and already under construction must also be usable for stage two and would possibly enable greater throughput. this would require an adjustment to permits that have already been issued.

3) due to the court ruling made a few weeks ago, the local government is trying to find a compromise between the plaintiff and revenue from future trade taxes. in order to avoid further lawsuits, they have imposed a condition on all local companies. this would represent added value for the region and prevent any delays caused by protests or further lawsuits. i would consider this bad for gln but good for locals and the region. i currently see no point why it should have any influence on environmental permits that have been granted or pending.

4) export permit
export permit would actually have to contain a variable upper limit. this can also be attributed to the gradual approach. imagine the catastrophe if permission should be granted for 5.4tpa and rejected for 21ktpa. this would jeopardize the entire project and with it many jobs. i therefore assume that the approval will only be granted after the environmental permits for stage two and the financing for this have been secured. this could also influence dd through glencore. the delay would also be explained here.

5) stage two approval
it is possible that these have resulted in some questions. i think a general rejection is unlikely. arg is just getting on the right track economically and the rejection of stage two would mean the immediate end for gln due to the precarious financial situation. I think a delay is conceivable due to inquiries from the local government. after the last court ruling, this could mean a more cautious approach from the authorities. fhe meeting between jp, dj and the local government a few weeks ago could also be related to this.


these are all guesses and my own thoughts. presumably (and this is the worst case scenario for gln financially) it is related to the road due to the timing.