The 29-page in-depth Global Mining Research report commissioned by AVB itself recently in September 2017 might just provide the basis for the independent valuation that you refer to? (just add white-out)
On page 8 it said "We value Avanco at US$584 unrisked, based on $3.00/lb copper.."
That is a whopping $584 x 1.30 = A$759 .. an embarrassingly high value.
Given events since then, the updated GMR value might just come in at a higher figure still ... and that would be an embarrassment to many, especially those who are fully supporting the ever-diminishing 16.8c bid.
Then again, what would such a revised valuation really achieve?? Vindication? A wave of "told you so" 's from HC.
In the end a suitor is going to do his own sums, regardless. And do them his own way. He may choose to add value for the great AVB intangibles. He may use the six month old independent GMR report as a start.. or not.
In the end, "worth" or value is surely determined by the auction we are having right now, not by broker, bidder or other opinions.. or even independent valuations.
Like any auction it is common for the first bid to be at the low end, while still being arguably credible. In the end the free auction decides true worth. It is "worth" what someone is prepared to pay. No more.
It may well be 17c in the end... (I hope not!!!) The real potential for a higher bid, identified by many on HC and based on good analysis, gives some optimism.
I fully support Directors and what they have done. In effect all they have said is let the auction begin. AVB urgently needs project finance, from someone who recognizes the excellence of its assets. To obstuct a takeover is to potentially condemn AVB to stagnation at 7.7c and the agonies of funding projects that have a capital requirement close to the market value of AVB!
Putting myself in their shoes I would have done the exactly same.
Little AVB with fabulous projects.. having to head out with the begging bowl to get a massive $230m. That finance obstacle is a huge wall and a project delaying factor. Company dilution? Vacillating Banco Boys again??
Now the way can be cleared to quickly realise project value and finance is someone else's problem.
If it is worth more to some other company than 17c then they will pay it.. Just have to wait and see.
AVB Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
