ARL 2.48% 59.0¢ ardea resources limited

My logic to higher JC share is following:If I would be...

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    My logic to higher JC share is following:

    If I would be investment mogul with finest business ties in the world and somebody approaches me (Ok, in our case JC approached Ardea), telling they want to do business, they have exceptional opportunity and potential. I would ask the money they need and how much would be their share of capex. They'd say total capex is 3.2 billion and they have only couple of millions. Okay, what are Your capital sources ? I would mainly rely on Your connection and ties and experience. Now as an investor, as an powerhouse, who has got powerful due to business skills and vision, not doing charity, tells that only thing You basically have, is non producing asset with high capex. Imagine somebody approaches You with business proposal and they dont have any money, but capex is 500 000$. Now You DDTRH can raise Your own money to fund this investment, but they want 85% of the company and You get 15%. This business can come to alive only thanks to You. Promised EBITA is 150 000 a year. Your share is 22 500 EBITA per year minus taxes + loan payment. Let's say 15 000 max You get annualy from Your 500 000 investment. That's 3% annualy. If they would give You 50% of the company, that would make 75 000 EBITA annualy. Let's say around 45 000 in profit, that's already 9% yield per annum. If they say that 500 000 is needed, they have external funding source, they'll give You 15% in exchange for 250 000. That's 32 500 EBITA, lets say 25 000 in profit, that's around 10 % yield, may be bit less. Again, it's never that simple or black and white but core principles in business remain the same + DDTRH brought out good cultural background and supply chain.

    That's why I said, hopefully Australian Agencies and institutions can offer a significant amount of capital to fund the project and thus, not to be too tied by JC. And AP brought out that JC wants SIGNIFICANT share. 10-15% would be rather marginal. For me significant share starts from 30%.

    NB! All the numbers are hypotetical, don't pay so much attention to them, just on idea. I really hope I'm wrong and can apologize in front of everybody.
 
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