Protagonist asked what if full funding by july is not met Are...

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Merchant2000

20,285 Posts.

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24/04/24

08:32

Post #: 73488471
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

It's unusual for one HC member to feel so compelled to reply to so many of any other member's posts.
That's Merchant. Some here that have him on ignore think he will stop posting so much if I ignore him. If they didn't have him on ignore they would know that wouldn't happen.

"SP has not factored in missing deadlines or not securing full funding"
The sp has dropped from a high of 21c in 2021 and a more recent high last year of 17.5c to 6c now. Are you seriously trying to tell us 6c and a mc of $47mill versus a project NPV of over $300mill is not factoring in delays and funding risk? If the sp was not factoring those risks in, then with production priced in for next year, the market cap would have to now be sitting at over $150mill. Of course those risks are currently priced in. Even you can see that despite claiming otherwise publicly with your downramping.
You tell me not to offer false hope when I post realistic numbers based on facts, but you can offer false scare tactics without substantiating your claims.
You have said that you expect this project to get into production but with much more dilution. How much dilution would it take to get the sp to the 2c level that you have posted again?
If you double the shares on issue, with a cr at say 5c, you would have roughly 2 billion shares on issue, diluted for options and over $50mill in cash. That's more than enough to get into production without needing any debt.
With that hypothetical 2 billion shares and construction fully funded, what sp would it take to get to a market cap of $150 mill which is just half of the project NPV?
Let me help you, that would be a sp of 7.5c and that would be based on an unrealistic doubling of the number of current shares and options and then having ample cash. So yes, 6c is already factoring in delays and funding risk and based on the numbers above, it's factoring in too much risk. Even 7.5c is factoring in an unlikely level of further dilution.
It's easy to downramp and put fear into investors heads when a sp is weak.
You yell me not to offer false hope but are quite ok to offer unlikely downside targets with no numbers to back up how you get that 2c.
I'll tell you how you get it, you pluck it out of thin air, downramp constantly and hope enough people believe it to get it there.
Even with no value on the phosphate project, the current market cap is already well below any realistic price that Minbos could get for the world class green ammonia project. That project has demonstrated costs in line with fossil fuel derived ammonia which is something I haven't seen in any other proposed green ammonia project anywhere. That project will likely have a NPV multiples higher than the phosphate project's DFS $315mill NPV.
I'm not offering false hope. I'm talking about real numbers. The current weakness doesn't make the numbers wrong it just reflects current very bearish sentiment that your so intent to feed off of and that's always an opportunity for the long term investor.

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Protagonist asked what if full funding by july is not met

Are you telling us 5.9c will hold ?

MNB Price at posting: 5.9¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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